716
FXUS63 KEAX 040506
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms today through tonight, in several
  rounds. Heavy rain and flooding likely.

- Strong to severe storms is this afternoon and evening. Large
  hail and damaging winds are the main hazards. Tornado threat
  remains low but not zero.

- Cooler conditions later in the week with additional chances
  for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Todays forecast will continue to be stormy and rainy as a result of
an upper wave an a cold front in the area moving very slowly to the
southeast. In the vicinity of the front (which is currently draped
across central Kansas into northwest Missouri) moisture parameters
are of note. Precipitable water values south of the KC Metro are
pushing close to 2 inches this afternoon. Moisture transport is to
the northeast which is nearly parallel to storm motion along the
frontal boundary. Continued scattered shower and thunderstorm
development is expected south of the front with this activity already
fairly filled in.

Southwest parts of the area have managed to clear
out a bit this afternoon leading to increased instability in our far
southern CWA. To our west, stronger convection has developed in
central Kansas and it continues to track to the east. As the
move into our area, strong winds and large hail will be a
possibility, thanks to the heating that has occurred south of
the Kansas City Metro. A QLCS tornado threat also evident with a
few embedded meso`s possible within the line. Wind gusts up to
60 mph look to be the biggest threat with this system however.
One caveat to severe potential is continued development of
scattered storm activity out ahead of this line which may impede
its ability to tap into the instability in our area, although
this remains less likely at this time. With the CAPE gradient
currently draped south of I-70, it looks as through the greatest
severe threat will remain south of this line and track east
into central Missouri.

Also of concern in addition to severe risk is periodic heavy
rainfall this afternoon across the Kansas City Metro and
locations south. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour look
possible with amounts as high as 4 inches in isolated locations
by this evening. The evening commute is expected to be impacted
and typical flood locations will likely be impacted in Kansas
City. River flooding will also be of concern this evening with
several gauges already rising.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected tapper off after sunset
leaving the area mostly dry before sunrise on Wednesday.
Temperatures Wednesday will be a bit cooler after the passage
of the cold front and mainly in the 70s across the area. Several
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over the next several days and into the weekend as several
waves move through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A mix of MVFR to IFR ceilings will give way to VFR conditions as
lower-level dry air advects southward into the area later
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Once conditions become VFR,
they`ll stay VFR through the rest of the forecast. Winds will
trend northerly early this morning and then northeasterly late
in the day and overnight. Winds will generally be less than
10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...CDB