294
FXUS63 KEAX 081743
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (around 40-70%) for light showers/drizzle starting this
morning lingering into the evening. Snow flurries possible Sunday
morning.

- Coldest temperatures of the season, so far, begin Saturday night
and linger into early next week.
    *Coldest Day: Sunday - highs in the 30s
    *Coldest Morning: Monday - lows in the upper teens to low 20s
    *Wind Chills: In the teens Sun and Mon AMs

- More seasonal temperatures return Tuesday with highs in the
  upper 50s and 60s. Temperatures return to well-above normal
  with widespread highs in the 70s by next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Today will be the last day of near/above normal temperatures before
we enter our cold stretch. A closed upper low remains over the
Hudson Bay Region pushing mid to upper level shortwaves through the
flow. One such shortwave is currently (as of 8Z) moving into the
Dakotas. At the surface, a low and partnering cold front over SD
will continue its track to the southeast. A potential for light
rain/drizzle arrives around sunrise as the front approaches our
northwestern CWA. Hi-res models suggest that precip tracks to
the east through the afternoon with the brunt of the precip staying
north of I-70. The HREF keeps the most favorable chances (60-80%)
for measurable precip north of HWY-36 and a rather steep drop in
chances along and south of HWY-36. Given the layer of dry air near
the surface and limited moisture, no significant accumulation is
anticipated. Models have been very consistent with keeping rain
totals for Saturday up to/slightly above a tenth of an inch. The
most favorable locations for rain totals slightly above a tenth of
inch will be areas west of I-35, along the MO/IA border.  As far as
temperatures go, expect a fairly wide spread as the cold front moves
through the area. Areas north of I-70 will range in the low 50s to
low 60s and areas south will approach the mid 60s.

Late Saturday into early Sunday, increased northerly windflow on the
backside of the front will spark a cold stretch that will last into
early next week. Strong cold air advection (CAA) will yield early
Sunday morning lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. These cold
temperatures coupled with wind gusts around 20-25 mph will allow
wind chills to sink into the teens to lower 20s. Additionally, a few
weak disturbances aloft move over the area resulting in a chance for
snow flurries. Given the limited amount of moisture in the dendritic
growth zone (DGZ), no accumulations are anticipated. Highs for
Sunday hover a few degrees above freezing, ranging from the mid 30s
to low 40s. As a surface high builds into the area from the northern
Plains, weakening winds, coupled with skies clearing out will set
the stage for efficient radiational cooling. Low temperatures
overnight Sunday into Monday morning will be the coldest ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s. By late Monday/early Tuesday the
surface high will transit to the southeast shifting winds to the
south. This will allow temperatures to begin warming up. The cold
stretch will linger into early Tuesday morning. However, early
morning lows will not be as brutal as Monday morning. Tuesday lows
will range in the upper 20s to low 30s.

The cold stretch will come to an end by Tuesday afternoon as
approaching mid to upper level ridging will lead to height rises.
Highs for Tuesday will become much more seasonal, ranging from the
mid 50s to low 60s. As the mid to upper level ridge becomes more
dominant, this will be the catalyst to a warming trend that will
last into the second half of next week. By next Friday, we will be
back to highs in the 70s with very limited chances for precip thanks
to the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Fairly messy TAF period, with a few items of note. First of
which, approaching cold front (already through KSTJ), will
traverse remaining metro sites over the next hour or two,
turning winds NW with sustained and gusts increasing into the
teens and 20s kts respectively. Post frontal, there is also an
area of MVFR cloud cover, but confidence in it reaching and
being sustained is limited. Much better MVFR/IFR ceiling chances
toward far northern Missouri into Iowa. For the time being, have
noted them in TAFs with SCT and will adjust as necessary.
Secondary shortwave and push of cold air may yield MVFR ceilings
after 00z, and have enough confidence in this occurring to put
prevailing mentions across sites. Lastly, -RA/-SN (really,
sprinkles/flurries in most cases) have been omitted from this
issuance with a downward trend in coverage and aggression in
available guidance. Does not preclude some completely, but
impacts should quite limited with any being mostly transient.
Will closely monitor TAFs for alterations to any of the above.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Curtis