923
FXUS63 KEAX 232324
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
524 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected today and tomorrow.

- A strong cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday
  with temperatures dropping nearly 20 degrees F across the
  area.

- Next chance for precipitation (25-40%) will be Wednesday into
  Thanksgiving. Wintry precipitation may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Since yesterday, a surface ridge has moved to the southeast of the
area over the Gulf Coast states shifting our winds to the south
allowing us to advect warmer air. This will help to initiate a
warming trend expected to last through the weekend. Low temperatures
tonight are expected to be roughly 10-15 degrees F warmer than
yesterday`s lows due to increased WAA and increased upper level
clouds through the overnight. Low temperatures tomorrow morning are
expected to range in the upper 30s to low 40s for areas north of HWY
36 and low to mid 40s for areas south.

Tomorrow, WAA continues out ahead of a strong cold front. This
combined with height rises aloft will help add to this weekend`s
warming trend. Current guidance suggests H850 temperatures around 40-
50 degrees F. With relative deep mixing and diurnal heating, high
temperatures for tomorrow are anticipated to range from the upper
50s for northern portions of MO and upper 60s across central MO
(which is 15-18 degrees F above seasonal normals). Sunday evening
into overnight Monday, the aforementioned cold front is expected to
move through the area. The NBM is suggesting a less than 10% chance
for rain for central MO. A sprinkle or two may be possible with the
passage of the front for central MO. Other ensembles show slightly
higher chances of rain but confidence is not high enough to increase
PoPs.

With frontal passage, high temperatures for Monday are expected to
be roughly 15-20 degrees F cooler than Sunday`s high temperatures
which is 5-10 degrees F below seasonal normals. Low temperatures for
Monday night into Tuesday morning are expected to range in the 20s
across the area with clearing behind the cold front. Tuesday high
temperatures will be fairly similar to Monday. However, low
temperatures into Wednesday morning will be warmer as winds shift to
the south out ahead of a surface cold front coupled with increased
overnight mid-level cloud coverage.

The main concern then shifts to Wednesday evening into Thanksgiving
as broad troughing pushes through the area. Broadscale lift will
give us a chance (25%-40%) for precipitation. Areas north of HWY 36
may see a light wintry mix consisting of rain and snow, however;
uncertainty remains as model trends have not been consistent with
how far south the rain to snow transition zone will be. We will
continue to monitor trends and provide updates with future models
runs. The pattern seems to remain somewhat active with temperatures
remaining below normal after Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. However, there
may be a period tomorrow morning, as moisture advects
northward, when MVFR ceilings are possible. HREF probabilities
of bases below 3000 feet are 60-70 percent. Looking at
soundings, it looks like this moisture builds north, clouds
develop late in the morning, potentially in the higher MVFR
range, then lift into VFR during the afternoon hours. Winds
aloft will increase overnight and sites like MKC and IXD, may
see some LLWS. Winds increase tomorrow morning with gusts of
20-25 kts by late in the morning expected. Winds will be from
the SE overnight and then become southerly tomorrow morning into
the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB