399
FXUS63 KEAX 081116
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
516 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers should overspread the region from SW
  to NE late tonight into Saturday morning/afternoon.

- Rainfall amounts between 0.25" to 0.75" are likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows a strong
upper level low over New Mexico this morning with a mid level
speed max rotating through the base of the trough across
northern Mexico into western Texas. Forcing for ascent and low
level warm air advection has yielded widespread convection
across much of the Southern Plains, with high level cloud cover
beginning to overspread our region from the southwest. Surface
high pressure remains in place over the region this morning,
with nearly calm winds and 2 AM temperatures ranging from the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

The aforementioned upper low over New Mexico and associated
trough will eject to the northeast today, with the upper low
progged to be centered over the TX/OK panhandles by late
afternoon. High level cloud cover should only increase
throughout the day today, with dew points also increasing
several degrees. A relatively large precipitation shield should
approach the area from the southwest this afternoon, and some
drizzle or even light rain will be possible this evening for
southwestern portions of the CWA. Widespread showers should
finally overspread the area from SW to NE overnight tonight into
early Saturday morning as the low occludes over western Kansas
and the occluded front lifts northward toward Missouri. A few
rumbles of thunder may be possible as there may be just a little
bit of instability available, especially toward the Ozark
Plateau. Rain should end from SW to NE by late Saturday
afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are currently forecast to
range from as much as 0.75" toward Bates County MO/Linn County
KS to as low as around 0.33" across NE Missouri.

By Sunday, the low should have progressed northeastward into the
Great Lakes region, with zonal west to east flow taking hold
over Kansas and Missouri. This should result in clearing skies,
slightly breezy westerly winds, and high temperatures in the
upper 50s to mid 60s for Sunday afternoon. Generally tranquil
weather conditions should persist through Tuesday with daytime
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Chances for rain return to the forecast next Wednesday as models
suggest another trough potentially moving into the Central
Plains, although the ECMWF and GFS currently differ quite a bit
in terms of the details of this trough. For now, slight chance
to chance PoPs (20 to 40 percent) are in the forecast for
Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the day. Conditions will
begin to deteriorate late this evening/ overnight as an area of
rain moves into the area from the west-southwest. Ceilings will
likely drop into the MVFR range with the potential for IFR
ceilings developing early tomorrow morning. For now have just
gone as low as MVFR given IFR is lower confidence and in the
last period of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...CDB