731
FXUS63 KEAX 081842
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
142 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures slowly warm over the next few days with a few locations
  in western MO reaching the low 80s by Friday. Highs in the
  80s become more widespread by Sunday.

- A few chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Friday
  into early next week. No severe anticipated at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A pleasant, fall-like day for today with ridging just upstream of
the area in the mid to upper levels. At the surface, high pressure
has made its way east towards the Great Lakes Region. As a result,
our winds have reoriented to a more easterly direction. With mid to
upper level ridging approaching the area, high temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs for today will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. This evening into tonight as skies remain
mostly clear, efficient radiational cooling will allow morning lows
to sink into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Our warming trend continues into tomorrow as mid to upper level
ridging moves over the area and winds shift to the south as the
surface high pushes farther to our northeast. Conditions overall
remain quiet through the day with highs in the 70s. Transitioning to
the overnight hours into Friday, a low at H500 descending on the
eastern side of the mid to upper level ridge, over the Great Lakes,
will develop a surface low. In conjunction with the surface high,
the surface low will push a weak cold front towards the area. Out
ahead of the surface front, southwesterly winds will result in
isentropic ascent at the 300K level. This, collocated with the
increased moisture of a low-level jet that intensifies over eastern
KS and western MO will yield precipitation chances (15-30%) mainly
for areas north of I-70 during the overnight hours into Friday. With
25-35 kts of shear and the increased moisture from the low-level
jet, these showers and storms could linger into the early afternoon
hours. Even still, no severe weather is anticipated given the very
weak instability and still limited moisture despite the efforts of
the low-level jet. Showers and storms will clear out leaving Friday
afternoon and evening mostly dry as the cold front moves through the
area. As far as temperatures, highs for Friday will continue to warm
with mid to upper level ridging remaining dominant over the area,
ranging in the upper 70s to low 80s. However, there is some
uncertainty in high temperatures depending on how cloud coverage
clears out and our ability to mix warmer temperatures to the
surface. For now, the NBM seems fairly confident in temperatures
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s given the small temperature
spreads. This is likely due to how weak this system appears to be
versus the impact of the mid to upper level ridge.

Any lingering effects of the cold front will be quickly muted as
winds shift out of the east by Saturday morning in response to a
deepening surface low emerging out of eastern CO. Through the day
Saturday, winds remain out of the east with H500 vort maxima moving
through the area collocated with a swathe of moisture. This will
result in slightly increased cloud coverage for Saturday keeping
temperatures fairly similar to Friday. Sunday, winds shift out of
the south with the approaching surface low resulting in the warmest
temperatures of the week. Highs for Sunday are expected to reach the
80s area-wide.

For the start of early next week, better precip chances arrive as
the surface low drags its cold front through the area. Precip
chances (20-30%) persist through the first half of next week as a
mid to upper level low riding along the Pacific Coast ejects
additional shortwaves through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. Winds
around 8-12 kts for most of the area with a few sites
occasionally gusting to around 16-18 kts. These gusty winds
will persist until this evening when winds shift more easterly
and weaken as diurnal mixing diminishes. Winds increase tomorrow
morning to around 10-12 kts with daytime heating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier