784
FXUS63 KEAX 091957
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
257 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures continue to warm back above normal, peaking Sunday
  well into the 80s for many.
  - Normal this time of the year is upper 60s/low 70s for highs

* A pair of rain chances remain in the forecast... non-severe
  showers and thunderstorms
  - Late overnight tonight thru Fri morning
  - Late overnight Sunday into Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A generally quiet day across the area, but with some ongoing signs
of change moving in. Big picture wise, mid-upper level ridging
remained the dominant feature across much of the central CONUS,
flanked by a large cutoff low pressure system off the PNW coast and
troughing over New England. There is also shortwave trough beginning
to dig southward through the Canadian Plains, and more on that
feature in just a bit. At the surface, a pair of large/broad high
pressure centers dominate much of the landscape, centered over the
eastern Great Lakes and southern Alberta/Saskatchewan respectively.
This results in broad southerly winds and moisture return over the
Southern and into the Central Plains. For the remainder of today and
into the evening, none of this will yield anything of note aside
from some bits of cloud cover and winds remaining up a bit vs going
light/calm.

Late overnight into Friday morning, the first of two precipitation
opportunities will traverse the area. The aforementioned mid-upper
shortwave digging southward through the Canadian Plains will
continue into the Northern Plains and NW Great Lakes, eventually
developing/forming a more organized surface low reflection. That
development, in conjunction with the trailing surface high, will
push a cool frontal boundary across the area Friday morning. The
also above mentioned southerly flow/moisture return and isentropic
lift ahead of this boundary will begin to prime the area for
expected scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. No major
changes for expectations for said activity, with predominantly
generic thunderstorm activity anticipated. While full profile
hodographs show good curvature and fair bulk shear, storms are
likely to be rooted around/above 5kft, where effective shear
profiles become much more unidirectional and lackluster in
magnitude. Additionally, low level moistening looks to limit
potential for evaporatively cooled/enhanced down drafts. With MUCAPE
profiles around 1000 J/kt, a few of the stronger updrafts may be
capable of small hail and some gusty winds, but short of
strong/severe criteria. This activity will move from NW to SE from
as early as 1am in NW Missouri to around the lunch hour exiting the
SE CWA (such as Sedalia). For the KC Metro, a 4am-8am timing window
may yield slowed morning rush/commutes. Once activity exits,
temperatures remain expected to creep a few degrees warmer than
today, into mid/upper 70s and even low 80s for some. This is
primarily due to the weak and shallow nature of the frontal passage
being overwhelmed by 925-850mb warming and subsequent diurnal
mixing.

Into and through the weekend, mid-upper level ridging becomes more
amplified large western CONUS mid-upper wave begins to come on shore
and a pair of mid-upper shortwaves/lows affect eastern CONUS.
Saturday temperatures to be similar to Friday for southern areas of
the CWA. Northern areas may be a couple degrees cooler with easterly
winds wrapping around surface high centered to the NE and before
more substantial 925-850mb warming. Sunday will be the warmest day
of the 7-day forecast with the mid-upper level ridging and 925-850mb
warm nose angled overhead. Guidance is quite consistent on this and
yields highs into the mid 80s for many. This would be as much as 15
or more degrees above normal for some locations. Normal this time of
the year tends to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Second precipitation opportunity comes through overnight Sunday into
Monday as the western CONUS trough lifts NE and induces broad area
of Lee Cyclogenesis. Associated cold front drops through the Plains,
reaching the area overnight Sunday. Uncertainty exists in how
progressive the front may be, with some solutions stalling in/around
the area and others continuing to drop southward. Regardless,
expectation remains for additional shower/storm activity. Best
synoptic scale lift will be displaced well northward with the parent
wave, leaving the area more reliant on frontal depth/strength and
LLJ details. NBM PoPs currently only yield slight to low chances (15-
25%) overnight Sunday into Monday, due to the variability in
deterministic and ensemble solutions. At this time, do expect PoPs
to gradually trend upward as deterministic and ensemble guidance to
continue to get a better handle on general progression.

Beyond Monday, guidance continues to diverge in details, but
deterministic runs all continue to depict an active pattern
remaining. Generally an Omega Block look to the pattern with
numerous shortwave ejected off a larger cutoff low over the W/SW
CONUS. This may yield additional shower/storm opportunities, but
far too variable to have any confidence at this point in time. This
pattern too would tend to yield seasonable to seasonably warm
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A couple items of note within this TAF period. Initially, a high
MVFR cloud deck that spread in from the south continues to
linger around the KC Metro sites, but has recently shown
growing signs of mixing out/lifting on visible satellite. So
have mentions of MVFR ceilings for the next couple of hours
before going VFR. Periodic gust up to 20kts through 00z, then
easing overnight. Frontal boundary and TSRA chances move in late
overnight, primarily from around 08z through 14z, as the
boundary drifts from NW to SE. Ceilings should remain VFR, but
periodic visibility restrictions may occur should heavier rain
cores drift over the immediate TAF sites. Given scattered
expectation and being on the SW edge of majority of activity,
have PROB30 mentions for this issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis