934
FXUS63 KEAX 220017
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
717 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near seasonal temperatures anticipated today and tomorrow
 with highs in the 80s.

- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday morning through the
afternoon. Low-end chances for severe weather.

- Below seasonal conditions arrive Sunday into next week with
  highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Broad mid to upper level ridging remains over the western U.S. with
a surface high over the Great Lakes Region. A slightly drier air
mass has situated over the area giving us at least a little relief
from the hot and humid conditions earlier this week. Highs today
will range in the mid to upper 80s, near seasonal averages.

This evening into the night, skies will clear out allowing
temperatures to diurnally cool to the crossover temperature. This,
combined with weak winds due to the influence of the surface high to
the northeast could set the stage for areas of patchy fog across our
area early tomorrow morning. Into Friday, conditions are anticipated
to remain quiet with highs in the 80s and lows around the mid 60s.

Precipitation chances return early Saturday morning as a dynamic
upper low moving over Ontario helps push a surface low and its
partnering surface cold front through the area from the northwest
towards the southeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
initiate to our northwest over NE and weaken as they move into our
area given the unfavorable environment for severe storms (weak shear
and limited instability). Chances for severe weather appear low at
this time, but a rogue strong to severe wind gust cannot be
completely ruled out as storms collapse primarily for areas
northwest of Maryville (highlighted well by the SPC Day 2 marginal
risk). PWATs ranging from 1.5-1.7 suggest the potential for a few
isolated heavy downpours. At this time, storms are anticipated to be
progressive enough to mitigate flooding concerns. A few storms could
possibly linger into the afternoon as the front gradually makes its
way through the area.

Additional storms are possible Sunday afternoon into the evening as
vort maxima move through the area co-located with the H850 upper
front. For now, the brunt of precipitation seems to stay south of I-
70, however uncertainty still lies with frontal placement and
timing. More chances for storms come early next week, but this will
be dependent on how far south the surface front progresses.
Temperature-wise, expect below seasonal temperatures on the backside
of the surface cold front as a surface high descends from Canada
bringing a much cooler air mass resulting in highs in the mid 70s to
low 80s. Precipitation chances return late next week with a H500
shortwave moving through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, although there
may be a chance for a brief period of some patchy fog
potentially lowering VIS a bit between 9z and 13z Friday.
Generally light ENE winds should persist.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BMW