572
FXUS63 KEAX 240937
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
437 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms possible today could
  bring heavy rainfall and marginally severe wind gusts.

- Hot and humid conditions persist through the rest of this week
  with a few chances for showers and storms for the second half
  of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A surface boundary across northern MO extending from a surface low
over eastern Canada has provided enough lift for showers and storms
this morning in southeastern IA through central KS. The threat for
severe weather this morning is very low with weak instability and
limited shear keeping storms individual storms disorganized and
short-lived. A 20-30 kt H850 low-level jet (LLJ) transporting warm
moist air may be just enough to keep a few isolated/scattered storms
forming along the surface boundary past sunrise. The only concern
with this morning convection would be the potential for some heavy
rainfalls leading to minimal localized flooding. Marginally strong
updrafts, weak MBE vectors, and PWATs near and exceeding 2 inches
across northern MO keep flooding concerns alive, but rain being
spread out across over such a long period of time keep flooding
concerns low for now.

Storms fizzle out as the LLJ weakens late this morning into the
evening. Stout mid to upper level ridging over the eastern U.S. that
has been the dominant driver of the recent heat conditions continues
to influence our area. Increased cloud cover from these recent
rounds of convection will result in slightly more tolerable
temperatures for today mainly for places near northwest MO. Highs
range from the mid 80s to low 90s near the MO/IA border to low 90s
across central MO. Tuesday afternoon, as the cap erodes, a few
isolated thunderstorms are possible north of I-70. SBCAPE values
hover around 1,500-2,000 J/kg which suggest potentially strong
updrafts, but the deep-layer shear is basically non-existent. This
will hinder storms from organizing leading to more short-duration
storms. The primary threats will again be strong winds and brief
periods of heavy rainfall. The severe threat is conditional based on
how much the environment will be able to destabilize given earlier
convection.

Tuesday evening into Wednesday, the surface boundary shifts farther
to the north across central IA. Simultaneously, the H850 LLJ re-
intensifies, nosing into southwestern IA increasing moisture
transport and instability. This will result in a 30%-60% chance for
showers and storms mainly north of HWY-36. Again, the environment
will have ample instability with low shear values. SBCAPE values
range from 2,500-3,000 J/kg with bulk shear values less than 10
knots. Additionally, DCAPE values ranging from 800-1,000 J/kg and
dry air aloft suggest a few of the strongest storms could produce
some isolated strong winds. SPC has issued a marginal risk (1/5) for
severe weather north of a line from Leavenworth KS to Macon. PWATs
range from 1.75-2 inches, so efficient rain-producing storms are
possible. Heavy rainfall could further aggravate areas that have
received multiple rounds of rainfall.

Shower and thunderstorms are possible again Wednesday afternoon into
the evening with vort maxima riding along the northwestern edge of
the ridge to the southeast. The most favorable area for showers and
storms remains in southern MO near the Ozarks. Ensemble guidance
keeps roughly 30%-40% chance for measurable precip across our area.

Friday and into the weekend, uncertainty increases with varying
solutions between ensemble suites. Rain chances are possible Friday
and into the weekend as additional vort maxima round the
northwestern periphery of the ridge to the southeast. This, combined
with a series of shortwaves advancing from the western U.S. could
provide wetter conditions for the second half of this week. However,
uncertainty remains high with these incoming systems and the
influence of the ridge. Hot and humid conditions persist through the
remainder of this week as we remain under the influence of the ridge
to the southeast. Heat indices remain in the 90s to low triple
digits from Friday into the weekend.

Extended model guidance suggests the ridge to the southeast moves
farther east early next week finally hinting at cooler conditions,
but confidence is low at this time given the large amount of time
until then.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

RA and TSRA linger through the overnight. Chances for RA/TSRA
lower after sunrise; however, chances return isolated RA/TSRA
develop during the afternoon. CIGs outside of precipitation are
expected to be low VFR. Winds remain variable becoming
southwesterly late morning. Some intermittent gusts are
possible through the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel