494
FXUS63 KEAX 071832
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
132 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, more seasonal conditions move in for a few days before
temperatures warm back into the 80s by Friday.

- Low-end chances (15-30%) for precip return late this week into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Quiet, much more seasonal temperatures expected today on the
backside of a cold front that moved through the area yesterday. In
the mid to upper levels, troughing enters the Great Lakes Region
with ridging upstream of the area over the western U.S. At the
surface, a high pressure to our northwest over the northern Great
Plains will continue to usher in a much cooler, more seasonal air
mass. Highs today will range mostly in the 60s with a location or
two in the low 70s. Skies will clear out later this evening as this
cooler, drier air mass continues to track into the area. This will
set the stage for efficient radiational cooling allowing morning
lows to sink into the 40s which happens to be about normal for this
time of year. Fog seems unlikely due to winds ranging around 5-8
mph, however a few, low-lying areas that received precip could see
some light, patchy fog for brief stretches early tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow, our winds reorient out of the east as the surface high
tracks to the east towards the Great Lakes. Expect high temperatures
to be a few degrees warmer than today as mid to upper level ridging
approaches the area. Highs for tomorrow will range in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. As the mid to upper level ridge axis continues to
approach the area, higher heights will allow temperatures to
continue to warm as we enter the second half of the work-week. The
refreshing, more seasonal temperatures will unfortunately be short-
lived as high temperatures return to the 80s by Friday. As far as
precip for the second half of the work-week, conditions stay mostly
dry. Spotty chances (below 20%) arrive during the predawn hours of
Friday morning into the afternoon. A weak H700 vort max moving
through the area collocated with a swathe of moisture could result
in areas north of I-70 getting some light morning showers or at a
minimum increased cloud coverage. Either way, impacts remain minimal
for morning commutes.

Expect Saturday and Sunday to be the warmest days of the week as the
mid to upper level ridge axis tracks through the area. Highs this
weekend area anticipated to range mostly in the low to mid 80s,
bringing us above normal once again for this time of year. A few
H500 vort maxima embedded within the ridge will just barely keep
precip chances alive through the weekend. Early next week, a dynamic
mid to upper level trough over the western U.S. will eject multiple
shortwaves out ahead of it increasing precip chances (20-30%) for
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Conditions gradually transitioning to VFR with clouds clearing out
from the north as drier air continues to advect through the
area. Areas north of KSTJ have cleared out. As a result, have
seen a few gusts to 16-18 kts with diurnal mixing. As skies
continue to clear out, may see more widespread gusts to the
upper teens. Winds will weaken late this evening and then shift
to the east by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier