179
FXUS63 KEAX 032314
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for rain as the pattern remains active through
  Sunday

- Rain/snow mix possible Saturday night into Sunday morning

- Near-freezing morning temperatures expected Sunday through
  Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows a surface high just to the northwest of
the area which has resulted in light easterly winds through the
evening today. A surface low over eastern TX tracking to the
northeast has yielded an influx of moisture from the Gulf. This is
the reason for light, scattered showers in southern MO which are
expected to slowly creep farther north this evening resulting in
light rainfall totals mainly south of I-70.

A mid to upper level trough has settled in the SW US and started
ejecting shortwaves through the flow. With southwest mid-level flow
over the area, the end result will be daily chances for
precipitation through Sunday. A shortwave moves through the flow on
Friday aiding in the development of widespread on and off showers
through most of the day Friday. A rumble of thunder or two is also
possible. The NAMNST shows scattered showers and storms starting
early Friday morning and moving across the area through the day. No
severe weather is expected with very limited instability and fairly
strong bulk shear values. These high bulk shear values suggest any
storms that develop will be short-lived. Friday high temperatures
are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today with increased
cloud coverage and widespread precipitation. PoPs drop off Saturday
morning north of I-70 as precip drifts to the east. Another wave
moves through the area Saturday evening leading to rain chances
again mainly south of a line from Kansas City to Kirksville.

As the Sunday morning wave moves through the flow, a surface high to
the northwest will bring a cold air mass through the region
resulting in near-freezing morning temperatures. This will result in
a rain to snow transition expected early Sunday morning. The GFS has
become more bullish in bringing snow accumulations farther north
with each model run. Snow accumulations are expected to stay minimal
given the recent warm temperatures. Even still, be mindful of
vegetation that may need to be covered. This will be the last of the
aforementioned SW US trough as it finally moves through the area
allowing us to get a break from the daily rain.

As the surface high gradually moves through the area, expect near-
freezing morning temperatures Sunday through Tuesday with Tuesday
morning anticipated to be the coldest. Early morning lows for
Tuesday will range in the 20s with northern MO on the lower end of
that range. High temperatures rebound nicely with winds shifting to
the south and skies remaining clear enough for temperatures to
rapidly improve through the day. Highs are expected to range in the
low 50s to low 60s. This will kick off a warming trend that will
bring us above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance
for precip comes early Wednesday morning. There will be another
chance for snow mainly along the MO/IA border. Mid to upper level
ridging builds into the area suggesting dry conditions for the
second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions will continue this evening and overnight but are
expected to deteriorate to IFR conditions tomorrow morning as
rain moves into the area. Conditions will likely remain IFR
through the remainder of the forecast. Winds look light,
generally from the east to east-northeast through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB