160
FXUS63 KEAX 250817
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
217 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder Temperatures This Week

- Light Precipitation Wednesday and Thursday

- Remains Cold Into Next Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Mid-level shortwave axis is moving across the Northern Plains this
morning with two secondary axes and vort maxima tracking further
south of there. This is the forcing that has brought the mid-
latitude cyclone across our area with strong trailing cold front,
which should be through entire forecast area by 12z-13z timeframe.
One of the secondary mid-level trough axes continues to dig across
the area in response to ridging developing over the Intermountain
West providing, strong northwesterly flow and a dominant CAA regime.
This will keep afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s for most of the
day, as the bulk of the area holds less than a 15 percent chance
amongst ensemble members for exceeding 50 degrees. Stronger pressure
gradient throughout the area along with strong CAA will pull down
quite a bit of momentum, resulting in breezy winds through most of
Monday. Given the strength of the cold front, convergence could try
to produce some light sprinkles but it appears upstream the drier
air on the backside is preventing this, as no ASOS/AWOS stations
have reported any traces of precipitation. Therefore, will keep the
forecast dry, and will monitor radar/satellite trends if any
sprinkles should develop. The secondary trough axis lifts into the
Great Lakes Region late tonight and Tuesday morning. Stronger AVA
over the Northern Plains is working to develop a surface anticyclone
and reinforcing mass of cold of air. Another short-wave trough over
the far Northern Rockies though de-amplifies mid-level ridging and
results in more zonal flow for our area on Tuesday and forces the
center of the surface anticyclone into the lower Missouri River
Valley. Subsidence should be prominent enough to clear skies out and
winds light to allow strong radiational cooling that will lead to
morning low temperatures in the upper 20s across most of the
forecast area, with over 95 percent probability of temperatures
below 30F. Without any forcing, Tuesday will remain dry and cool.

Wednesday, currently watching a short-wave trough with strong mid-
level vort max working across the Intermountain West providing dCVA
into the area between the southern Plains and desert southwest. This
works to generate a surface cyclone near the OK/TX panhandle region
early on Wednesday and attempts to turn low-level flow southerly
into the Ozarks Region. Current deterministic guidance suggests we
may see some surface pressure falls as this tries to push northward.
However, a secondary vort max ahead of the more pronounced wave may
provide more northwesterly flow that prevents substantial northward
movement of this surface cyclone. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF seem
to be in somewhat better agreement over the position of the better
forcing, but ECMWF continues to be stronger and depicts warm-
conveyor belt wrapping around the system providing enough moisture
to to produce some precipitation by late Wednesday evening,
concentrated between the I-70 and Hwy. 36 corridors. Ensemble suites
still remain somewhat spread out, with GEFS coming in with lower
probabilities for measurable QPF, and other ensemble systems still
holding over 80 percent probabilities for seeing measurable QPF.
Through the evening on Wednesday, temperatures should remain warm
enough that if any precipitation does occur, most of this will be
rain. For a few hours by early Thursday morning, temperatures may
cool enough for an hour or two of a rain-snow mix. Overall though,
QPF is very light in solutions that are depicting some type of
precipitation with accumulations that would result in minimal to no
impacts for travel. The main story for the week will be the cold
temperatures with most overnight and early morning lows dropping
below freezing.

Thursday through Friday, mid-level low is progged to become wrapped
over the Northern Great Lakes Region and will continue to leave our
region in predominantly northwesterly flow, providing another shot
of strong CAA. High temperatures will generally be in the the mid to
upper 30s in this regime, and conditions may a bit windy with
stronger pressure gradient force along with downward momentum
transport supported by the CAA. Forecast remains dry through late
Friday. Next weekend, another stronger vorticity max is progged to
swing southward and provide forcing that could produce some light
precipitation, with cold troposphere supporting light snow. However,
there is no substantial moisture transport depicted prior to this
forcing swinging across the area. Perhaps our eastern counties may
see light snow shower. We will continue to monitor ensemble trends
as the week progresses for Saturday activity. The story continues to
be the cold temperatures with most nights and morning reach below
freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR ceilings to start the period, followed by MVFR cloud bases
likely moving in around the 07-08Z timeframe. STJ could see these
lower cloud bases earlier on. Breezy conditions are in store
throughout this TAF interval, with wind gusts over 25 knots
possible. Partial clearing and a return to VFR is forecast to
begin around 16-17Z, with mostly clear conditions prevailing by
the evening. Additionally, west-northwesterly winds should
relax shortly after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Hayes