869
FXUS63 KEAX 181115
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight, with the
  most likely timing from late this evening through the
  overnight hours.

- Near-normal temperatures likely Wednesday into early next week
  with low precipitation chances, mainly early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A convective system is moving southeast through Nebraska as of 07Z
and how this system evolves through sunrise and beyond will play a
major role in where/ how convection develops/ evolves this afternoon
and through the overnight. Anticipating this system will weaken
as it moves southeast and begins to affect the northwestern
portions of the forecast area early this morning. Instability
is substantially weaker over northwestern and north central
Missouri, which should favor a weakening trend as it approaches
the area. That said, there is some potential for it persist
further southeast and bring some strong wind gusts into
northwestern Missouri early this morning. Cloud cover
associated with the decaying MCS may limit the potential
instability over the norther tier of Missouri and overall, the
slight risk has been consolidated more to the southwestern
extent of the previous outlook. This evening, the surface
pattern will feature an area of low pressure over southern
Kansas, with a what looks like a warm front extending east into
the southern portions of the forecast area. This will lead to
MLCAPE values as high as 2500J/kg across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. As a subtle shortwave trough moves east,
increasing flow aloft will support deep-layer shear increasing
to over 40 kts. A strong low-level jet will also develop with
strong moisture transport northward into the boundary.
Convergence along this boundary will get the main convective
episode going and will initially support supercells with a large
hail and damaging wind threat, though a tornado or two can`t be
ruled out as well. Over time, this will evolve into a more
linear/bowing segment with damaging winds becoming the main
hazard. Overall, the most likely window for severe storms looks
like roughly 02Z/9PM through 09Z/4AM. In addition to the severe
weather threat, high precipitable water values will support
localized heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding. The
area is also under a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Looking
over flash flood guidance, values are fairly high 2-3"/hr for
areas where the greatest QPF is situated so will not be issuing
a flood watch with this forecast.

For the remainder of the forecast, temperatures will be closer
to normal for this time of year, which is generally in the
middle to upper 80s. Ensemble mean 500mb heights and anomalies
favor northwesterly flow over the middle of the country with
ridging over the western half of the CONUS and troughing over
the eastern half. This pattern looks generally dry, and that is
generally what the forecast shows. But we`ll need to watch for
embedded shortwaves and/or internal PV anomalies generated from
upstream convection, that may affect the area. These are not
resolvable on this scale, both spatially and temporally, thus
the generally dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Challenging forecast for eastern KS and western MO this forecast
period. Fairly widespread convection is ongoing NW of the area
that is tracking SE, but into a less favorable environment for
convective maintenance, at least early on. It`s possible
(20-40%) that the storms in NE eventually build SE into the
terminals later this morning/early this afternoon. Have added a
PROB30 group to denote this potential. Later in the period,
additional storms seem likely to develop over eastern KS and
western MO, affecting all sites between 03Z and 08Z. Have added
another PROB30 group to capture this potential. VFR conditions
are expected outside of any convective activity. Winds will
primarily be light out of the south early in the period. A gust
front from the decayed MCS in northern MO may temporarily shift
winds to the north this morning. This evening and overnight,
winds shift to the east as a boundary sets up south of the area
with winds remaining generally light, outside of convection.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB