913
FXUS63 KEAX 241941
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
241 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated marginal severe threat late this evening into the overnight
  for areas near west-central MO. Most favorable areas for
  severe weather and flooding stay just to the south of the area
  over southern MO/KS.

- An unsettled pattern will give us multiple chances for
  showers/storms through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A stalled warm front extending through eastern OK into AR has
provided forcing for showers and storms this morning that just
clipped the southern portions of our area. Weak isentropic ascent
could give areas south of I-70 a chance for a few isolated to
scattered showers this evening. Into the overnight hours an H850 low-
level jet (LLJ) intensifies and interacts with the stalled warm
front. Low level convergence could result in showers and
thunderstorms. Current model guidance suggests that the H850 LLJ
stays to the southwest of the area over the KS/OK border keeping the
most favorable area for severe thunderstorm development to our
southwest. Models show MUCAPE values around 200-300 J/kg for west-
central MO. Limited severe chances for the southern portions of our
area remain alive due to the 35-45 kts of bulk shear present. If the
warm front pushed a little more north, better forcing could result
in increased chances for severe thunderstorms. This seems a little
unlikely as probabilistic guidance has been shifting the system and
the brunt of the precipitation more to the southwest with more
recent model runs. If the severe threat materializes later tonight,
the primary hazards will be strong/damaging winds and hail. PWATs
around 1.5 inches suggest the potential for efficient rain-producing
storms. If storms begin to train, rainfall rates could exceed 1 or 3
hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG). As a result, a flood watch is in
effect for Linn (KS), Bates, and Henry counties through Monday
night. Better chances for flooding still remain farther south in
southern MO/KS as those areas are closer to the better moisture
transport, instability, and forcing.

Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to dissipate through the
early morning hours on Sunday as the 850 LLJ weakens. Through the
day Sunday, mid to upper level troughing dips into the Four Corners
Region while sending shortwaves through the flow. As the pattern
becomes more unsettled, this will provide additional chances for
showers and storms through Sunday mainly for areas south of the KC
Metro. Instability seems to remain fairly limited still with a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. Good shear is still present so, there may be
a potential for an isolated severe threat Sunday afternoon. Rain
chances persist Monday and Tuesday as mid to upper level troughing
moves through the region and forces multiple shortwaves through the
flow. Severe chances drop significantly for Monday as the system
loses jet support and bulk shear values diminish.

Wednesday, a transient surface high could provide some brief relief
from all the rain, however the pattern becomes more unsettled with
multiple troughs and shortwaves bringing rain chances for the second
half of next week. Temperatures look to warm into the upper 70s to
low 80s going into the weekend as mid to upper level ridging builds
into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions expected for most of the TAF period. Winds out of the
west with a few gusts to around 17-19 kts through the day. A round
of showers possible late tonight for all terminals which could
reduce visibilities and lower ceilings. There is some uncertainty
with location and intensity of showers. An isolated thunderstorm or
two is possible. Another round of showers is possible early
tomorrow morning which could reduce conditions again mainly for
KMKC, KMCI, and KIXD.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MOZ053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier