547
FXUS63 KEAX 072207
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Damaging freezes expected overnight tonight into tomorrow
  morning for susceptible vegetation

- Rain/thunder chances (20-45%) return late Tuesday night
  through Thursday

- Warm weekend ahead as high temperatures range in the upper 60s
  to low 80s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A cold front, extending from a surface low over the Great Lakes,
continues its track through the area in southern MO. A surface ridge
descending from Canada this afternoon, will keep skies clear and
winds light this evening into the overnight. This will set the stage
for decent radiational cooling allowing temperatures tonight to
bottom out into the mid to upper 20s across the area. A freeze
warning is in effect from midnight CDT tonight until 9 AM CDT
tomorrow morning. Plants susceptible to freezes will need to be
covered to avoid damage. As the surface high moves to the east of
the area through the early morning Tuesday, winds shift to the
south. Clear skies will allow diurnal heating to remain efficient
resulting in high temperatures ranging in the mid 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, a surface low ejects out of the Plains
resulting in slim chances (~20-30%) for light showers mainly for
areas east of I-35 and north of I-70. Rain totals will likely stay
in the range of a few hundredths with limited moisture available.
Thunderstorms are not likely with little to no instability present
in the environment. PoPs significantly diminish by late Wednesday
morning as showers exit to the east. Winds shift to the west on the
backside of the surface low allowing warm air advection resulting in
highs ranging in the 70s for Wednesday.

Early Thursday morning, an upper level trough shifts to the
southeast over the Great Lakes Region pushing another surface low
through the area on the heels of the surface low that exited the
area Wednesday. This will yield the potential (35-45% chance) for
showers Thursday morning into the evening with the brunt of
precipitation remaining to the east of I-35. CAPE values around 300-
500 J/kg and bulk shear values ranging from 50-60kts suggest the
potential for a few strong isolated storms if this convective energy
is realized. We will continue to monitor trends to see how guidance
further develops this event.

Dry conditions expected starting Friday as broad mid to upper level
ridging pushes a surface ridge through the area. As the surface high
moves to the east of the area, winds shift to the south kicking off
a warming trend into the weekend. Highs for Saturday are expected to
range in the mid 60s to low 70s. Sunday, high temperatures climb
into the low 80s for areas south of I-70 and upper 70s north of I-
70. For Monday, a shortwave brings chances for rain however, PoPs
remain below 20%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Gusty winds should quickly subside with sunset tonight as high
pressure builds into the region. As surface ridge builds east
into the Mississippi Valley, expected southerly winds to
increase, potentially becoming marginally gusty Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT