919
FXUS63 KEAX 042335
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
535 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue through sunset due
  to gusty southwesterly winds.

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions continue
  through Thursday afternoon.

- Precipitation chances increase Thursday night with highest
  probabilities (40-50%) across eastern portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Currently, a breezy and warm day is ongoing with southwesterly winds
gusting 25 to 30 mph, most widespread south of I-70. This is due in
part to a strong 40 knot warm southwest flow at 850 mb. Temperatures
are peaking into the mid 70s this afternoon, which is good for about
10 to 15 degrees above normal. This is all leading to elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon, though humidity remaining above
35 percent is helping to mitigate concerns somewhat. Wind will
subside after sunset.

Flow at midlevels remains more westerly today, and will eventually
turn northwesterly overnight as a wave passes through the Great
Lakes. This will lead to cooler air dropping south into Missouri
around sunrise Wednesday. Wind will shift to northerly as this front
arrives, leading to a cooler day. This will be most notable across
northern Missouri where highs will drop back down to near seasonable
norms, around or just under 60 degrees. Farther south highs will
peak 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today, though still above-normal
into the mid to upper 60s.

The near-zonal midlevel flow become more anticyclonic Wednesday
night, keeping conditions dry and a little warmer again through the
afternoon. This will finally change after sunset as a disturbance
and a return to cyclonic flow arrives, associated with a system
dropping into the Great Lakes. This should bring a quick shot of
moisture chances to the area Thursday evening through the pre-
sunrise hours on Friday, focused mostly across eastern portions
of the CWA. PoPs have increased slightly in the past 24 hours
or so, though are still on the low end (40-50%) mainly east of
I-35 and north of I-70. There is still a chance for this system
to pull farther west, which could bring better rain chances to
the KC metro. Regardless, potential amounts are similarly on the
low side as most of the moisture and forcing remains well to
our east. Currently, amounts are expected to remain under a
tenth of an inch.

Further out, dry conditions are expected Friday and Saturday, with
continued warmer than normal temperatures. The next chance for rain
will come Saturday night into Sunday as a potentially stronger wave
drops down from the Upper Midwest. However, this one is also looking
fairly similar to Thursday night`s event, with the best chances for
moisture focused across northeastern Missouri. A more likely
scenario with this will be a stronger, mostly dry cold front that
will lead to a much cooler Sunday. Currently, highs on Sunday are
not forecast to reach above the mid 40 degree range, which would be
about 20 degrees cooler than on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Another weak front will move through the area tonight, shifting
winds to the west and then north as it moves south. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with gradually
decreasing high-level clouds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...CDB