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FXUS63 KEAX 192344
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional storms are possible later this afternoon and
  evening across southwestern portions of the CWA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

This afternoon a boundary reside across the extreme southwestern
CWA. A cluster of storms located in Topeka is expected to travel
southeast along this boundary and may persist long enough this
evening to bring a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and
heavy rain to the southwestern CWA. Conditions are expected to dry
out tonight into tomorrow as a surface ridge of high pressure looks
to build south into the area from the Upper Midwest. This may lead
to some light fog across the area tomorrow morning. This will also
return temperatures to nearer seasonal normals tomorrow with lower
humidity with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The surface ridge
of high pressure will remain in control over the area on Thursday
with highs in the 80s. Friday, the surface ridge will slide east of
the area as a upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners
region attempts to build eastward providing subtle height rises.
This will allow highs to rise back into the mid 80s to near 90.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive in the area Friday
night as a upper level trough moving through the northern tier
states acts to flatten the upper ridge attempting to build into the
region as forces a cold front into the forecast area. Strong storms
capable of gusty winds may be possible as modest instability between
1000-1500J/Kg of MUCAPE will be available however, shear will be
weak. This frontal passage will bring cooler temperatures for
Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A surface ridge of
high pressure will then to look to build into the area Saturday
night into Sunday ushering in early Fall-like temperatures for
Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A reinforcing
surface ridge will build south from the northern Plains on Monday
under northwest flow aloft bringing another early Fall-like day with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A few showers are ongoing this late afternoon southeast of the
KC metro, but the terminals are expected to remain dry through
the period. VFR conditions are generally expected, although
there may be a brief period of fog reducing VIS to MVFR between
around 9z and 13z Wednesday morning, primarily at STJ and MCI.
Light and variable winds this evening should eventually become
northeasterly, remaining light (8 knots or less).

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BMW