881
FXUS63 KEAX 041735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably Warm, Increasing Humidity

- Isolated Storms Friday Afternoon

- Scattered Storm Activity Saturday, Marginal Risk for Strong to
  Severe Storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Amplified H5 ridge axis has entered the eastern Plains early this
morning and will continue to propagate eastward through the remainder
of the afternoon. Across the western CONUS a few stronger short-wave
perturbations, with a few also in Canada, have been providing subtle
disruptions downstream resulting in scattered precipitation activity
across different regions of the country. One of these vort maxima
has moved into the Front Range and has provided just enough dCVA and
lift to attempt a surface cyclogenesis process. This has turned
lower-level troposphere flow south to southwesterly across much of
the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley. This will lead to
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, with
dewpoints steadily increasing into the upper 60s. That could be a
tad high for the actual dewpoint range, if boundary layer mixing is
stronger, that could result in dewpoints topping out more around the
lower to mid 60s. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
over Central Kansas this afternoon shortly after peak heating, and
along with a mid-level vort max progged to eject eastward. There is
some potential that this forcing may sneak far enough eastward to
develop thunderstorm activity from eastern Kansas to around the Hwy.
65 corridor across central Missouri. Depending on how much time
skies remain clear this afternoon, a stronger MLCAPE axis is
possible, with HREF mean MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg. The
simulated reflectivity fields in various CAMs do depict some cores
developing, but do not last very long, and this lines up with the
progged environment. There is very weak mid to upper-level flow
present, therefore very little shear to truly organize convection.
The main hazard if isolated to scattered storms develop this
afternoon and evening would be lightning.

Saturday, H5 ridge axis completely slides eastward, with a stronger
vort maxima propagating across the Central Plains and associated weak
surface wave. Continued low-level theta-e advection should result in
another unstable boundary layer, that could form during the late
morning hours. With better convergence present in this thermodynamic
environment, expecting to see a couple of rounds of scattered
thunderstorm activity, especially along and west of Hwy. 65. Current
model soundings suggest stronger cores could produce downburst winds
at times, with lower static stability in the boundary layer, some
precip loading around 800mb, and just enough of a dry pocket to
promote some evaporative cooling. The deep layer shear environment
still does not look overly impressive, but if the vort maxima comes
in stronger than currently progged in deterministic output, may see
0-6km bulk shear reach close 30 kts, perhaps enough to organize a
few updrafts. The SPC SWODY2 marginal risk for our northwest
counties highlights this risk.

For the remainder of the weak, a 594dam high is progged to setup
over the southwest CONUS, with multiple disturbances set to move
through the northwesterly flow. Most ensemble suites depict low-end
probabilities nearly every day next week for measurable
precipitation. Deep-layer shear may be hard to come by, therefore
not seeing any signals for a robust, organized severe setup at this
time through the middle of next week. Anything stronger will have to
be largely mesoscale driven. Temperatures will mostly be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s through next week. Inner-quartile spread
amongst NBM members is wider, and this is likely due to uncertainty
with timing of shower activity and associated cloud clover
throughout much of next week. This type of large scale synoptic
pattern is fairly typical for July and August for eastern Kansas to
Central Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions will remain for the majority of the TAF period.
Southerly winds occasionally gusting 15-18 kts will last through the
day. Winds will weaken as daytime heating diminishes and then
pick up again late tomorrow morning with a few gusts to 18-20
through the day. A round of storms will be possible towards the
end of the forecast timeframe. However, there is still
uncertainty with timing and evolution of weather features.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Collier