277
FXUS63 KEAX 172325
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Triple digit heat indices possible tomorrow mainly for central
  MO.

- Hazardous heat likely building this weekend through the first
  half of next week. Heat indices will range from 100-110 F.

- Multiple low-end chances for showers and storms the rest of
  this week into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Multiple MCSs starting late last night through this morning have
resulted in significant flash flooding across the KC Metro and a few
surrounding areas. Rain totals since last night vary across the area
with reports as high as 8-10 inches near Olathe, KS and 3-6 inches
over the eastern portions of our CWA (near Saline, Howard, and
Pettis counties). This resulted in numerous water rescues and road
closures in the KC Metro. Additionally, a few rivers and creeks in
these areas have reached action to minor stage and look to subside
within the next couple of days.

For today, a surface high pressure will slowly shift east towards
the Great Lakes on the backside of a surface front that has stalled
out near southern MO. Later today, a H500 shortwave will move
through the flow increasing localized lift resulting in a chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. The better potential
for convection remains to our south, however a few areas in central
MO may see a few isolated thunderstorms. The HREF shows some spotty
chances (up to 30%) for measurable precipitation for Clinton, MO and
surrounding areas this evening into tonight. Severe chances remain
very low. Meager CAPE values, very limited shear, and an overall
unfavorable environment for severe weather work to diminish the
severe risk.

Tomorrow, a surface low develops to the east of the Front Range.
Southerly winds out ahead of the surface low will allow increased
warm, moist air advection. Temperatures will begin to climb with
highs ranging in the mid 80s to low 90s. Areas along our southern
fringes (Linn, Bates, and Henry counties) may see low triple digit
heat indices. Tomorrow afternoon into the evening, there will be a
chance for a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly for the
northern half of MO. The NBM keeps PoPs below 20% through the
afternoon. However, that may be a little underdone. A few of the
more recent short-term deterministic models (HRRR and NAMNST)
initiate convection in areas along and north of I-70. They both
agree on MCSs moving into our area late Friday night and weakening
by the time it gets into our area. A fairly stable environment will
keep the severe potential very limited.

Heat and humidity continues to build as we head into the weekend.
Mid to upper level ridging over the western U.S. shifts eastward and
a surface high over the southeastern U.S. becomes stagnant keeping
our winds out of the south. A strong H850 MB thermal ridge over the
western U.S shifts farther east towards the area. Highs for Saturday
are anticipated to range in the low to mid 90s with dew points in
the low to mid 70s. By Saturday, there is fairly high confidence in
widespread triple digit indices. Areas south of I-70 will be at the
highest risk of dangerous heat as heat indices may approach or
exceed 105. Heat headlines will be possible.

Saturday, there will be a low-end chance for isolated strong to
severe storms mainly for the northern half of Missouri as the
aforementioned surface low and the associated surface fronts move
through eastern KS and NE. Simultaneously, a weak H500 shortwave
moves through the flow providing additional lift aloft. SPC has
issued a marginal risk (1/5) for areas north of a line from Rock
Port, MO to Macon, MO.

Sunday into the first half of next week, heat and humidity continue
to build as the mid to upper level ridge gradually moves over the
area. Forecasted max heat indices look to remain hazardous ranging
from 100-110 F. Areas that see overnight/early morning temperatures
in the mid 70s will struggle to find relief from the heat. providing
little to no relief with lows in the low to mid 70s. Heat headlines
will likely be necessary in the near future. As far as rain chances,
there will be a few chances as shortwaves ride along the
northwestern periphery of the ridge in the southeast U.S., however
uncertainty is high with timing, location and intensity being this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Plenty of lingering moisture around resulting in broken to
overcast cloud cover across most of the region. Starting to see
pockets of MVFR ceilings move in at some spots, generally from
north-northwest to south-southeast, but its progression has not
been uniform. By the overnight hours, most of the area is
expected to be under MVFR ceilings that will continue into early
Friday morning. Winds expected to be less than 10 kts, but may
show variability in direction depending on movement of the weak
boundary that moves back into the area. High resolution models
have been backing off on shower development Friday morning, but
we may see some isolated activity. For STJ and KC Metro terminal
sites, have left mentions of precipitation out of the 00z TAFs
for now, and will reassess at the 06z TAF issuance if it needs
to be added back in for a few hours during the morning and
afternoon hours of Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Krull