607
FXUS63 KEAX 031944
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures in the upper 80s (give or take a few
  degrees) into early next week.

- Conditions should be mostly dry through Friday evening. Storm
  chances return late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
  No severe weather is anticipated at this time.

- An additional round of storms is possible late Saturday into Sunday.
  Some of the strongest storms could produce a few strong wind
  gusts and brief periods of heavy rainfall.

- An unsettled pattern is expected early next week with multiple chances
  for storms, with high uncertainty on timing and impacts.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Mid to upper level ridging over the Great Plains continues to move
eastward today. The accompanying surface high remains to the east of
the area which has resulted in southerly winds slowly increasing low-
level moisture. Expect gradually more humid conditions through the
Fourth of July as the southerly surface flow continues. Highs for
tomorrow range in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Heat indices will mainly range in the 90s.

Late Friday into Saturday, a 25-35 kt H850 low-level jet (LLJ)
intensifies across eastern KS and western MO out ahead of an
approaching weak shortwave trough moving into the region by
Saturday. This will help to increase moisture transport and low
level convergence initiating a few storms mainly for eastern KS and
western MO, but the timing of these phenomena producing sufficient
lift for convection appears to be well after dark (i.e., after most
Independence Day-related festivities). HREF guidance shows less than
a 15% chance for storms to develop Friday afternoon, for example.
Cannot rule out an isolated storm completely during the afternoon
and evening, but widespread convection seems rather unlikely.

Severe weather seems unlikely with this first elevated chance of
storms (mainly late Friday night into Saturday morning). Limited
shear (0-6 km bulk shear values less than 20 kts) and poor diurnal
timing point to short-lived, disorganized storms. DCAPE values
exceed 1,000 J/kg Friday afternoon, but rapidly drop off Friday
night via nocturnal cooling, when overall potential for convection
increases. PWATs ranging from 1.7-2 inches allude to the potential
for efficient rain-producing storms, but storms may be rather weak
by the time they occur in our area.

As a weak surface front moves through the area late Saturday into
Sunday, it could provide enough forcing to develop storms. Severe
chances look better (although still very marginal) late Saturday
into Sunday. Instability improves (CAPE to around 1,500-2,000 J/kg),
but shear is still very limited which will keep storms disorganized
and short-lived. The primary threats will be a few strong wind gusts
and brief periods of heavy rainfall. Storms are anticipated to be
progressive and/or short-lived enough to limit any flooding concerns.

Mid to upper level ridging remains dominant in the southwest U.S.
for the start of next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled for
us as multiple shortwaves move through the flow on the northeastern
periphery of the ridge. This could make for a more active weather
pattern providing several chances for storms (perhaps via mesoscale
convective systems, as multiple deterministic models suggest today).
However, uncertainty remains high at this point, given this
pattern`s overall predictability. The NBM keeps up to a 35% chance
for showers and storms through next Wednesday. As for temperatures,
highs remain fairly seasonable (maybe a few degrees above) staying
in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices not straying too far
from the forecast temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. Winds
will remain weak and out of the south. Some diurnal cu has begun to
develop so, placed a FEW035 group. Tomorrow morning into the
afternoon, occasional gusts to 15-18 kts are anticipated with
daytime heating.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier