053
FXUS63 KEAX 140714
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
214 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain chances (20% to 40%) continue for areas north and
  west of I-35 today into tonight.

* Well above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  expected Wednesday through Friday
  - At this point in the season, up to around 15-20 degrees
    above normal

* Next chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday into Friday night
  - A few strong storms cannot be ruled out at this time
    however, organized severe weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

This morning, a upper level trough is digging down the west coast
and will continue to do so today. This will allow a downstream upper
level ridge to build over the central CONUS. Today into tonight a
few weak shortwaves rounding this upper ridge will attempt to bring
a few chances (20%-40%) light showers into areas generally
delineated to north and west of I-35. However, dry air below 7-10kft
will need to be overcome. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies over the
northern forecast area will keep highs around 70 degrees while areas
across the southern CWA where greater height rises will exist will
rise to near 80. Wednesday the upper level trough over the west
coast will begin to shift slowly eastward into the western Rockies.
This will allow the ridge to become more amplified over the central
CONUS with the ridge axis moving directly over the forecast area.
This will drive highs up into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Thursday the
upper level trough moves into the eastern Rockies forcing the upper
level ridge axis east of the forecast area however, increased WAA
will keep highs in the low to mid 80s.

By Friday, the upper level trough moves out into the northern and
central Plains states. This will force a cold front into the area
Friday afternoon. Adequate instability and sheer exist for a few
strong storms however, widespread severe weather is not expected.
With the front not reaching the area until later in the day Friday,
highs are still expected to achieve the upper 70s to mid 80s. Friday
night into Saturday the upper level trough will swing through the
region continuing shower and thunderstorm chances before the system
exits Saturday afternoon. The EC solution is slower with the exit of
the upper level system and holds showers into Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night however, the more progressive pattern highlighted
above by the GFS is perferred. Consequently, dry conditions are
expected from Saturday afternoon through early next week as surface
high pressure builds into the area behind the departing system.
Highs Saturday behind the front will fall into the low to mid 70s
and into the mid 60s to near 70 will high pressure in control on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period. Weak winds out of the north
with a SCT-BKN deck around 6-10kft. Increased ceilings (possibly
MVFR) are expected out ahead of a few showers during the predawn
hours this morning. However, confidence in location remains low at
this time. Winds will gradually shift to the southeast by the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Collier