239
FXUS63 KEAX 122042
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated afternoon showers and storms Saturday and Sunday, mainly
  south of I-70.
  - No strong/severe storms expected.

* Additional chances for showers and storms into next week.

* Temperatures gradually rise/return to seasonable to seasonably
  warm conditions in the upper 80s to low 90s.
  - Peak temperatures may be dependent shower/storm
    opportunities and timing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Broadly quiet conditions prevailed over the area today with the
surface front stalled out across central Missouri, just outside of
our CWA and into the LSX/SGF areas. This would typically suggest the
majority of any convective activity today/tonight would be just out
side of our area. That may not necessarily be the case, for a
couple/few reasons. Airmass immediately behind the front is not
wholly different, primarily a few degrees cooler and drier dew
points displaced back over Nebraska/western Iowa. No substantial EML
too has allowed nearly uncapped MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Some noted gravity waves on visible satellite imagery moving through
the CU field along with the approaching mid-level shortwave trough
appear poised to spark off some scattered weak convection. Have seen
one or two air mass storms thus far, and suspect as much through
peak diurnal heating. Arrival of the mid-level shortwave should
further allow convection, and is currently tied more closely to
the ongoing MCS over south-central Kansas and northern
Oklahoma, but times out to be more in the evening/overnight.
Similar to many other recent days, wind profiles are wholly
unsupportive of much more than air mass storms and a shot at an
enhanced downdraft/wet microburst, though not as much available
dry air within soundings as previous day. Majority of this
activity should be relegated to I-70 southward. Could be a
sneaky heavy rainfall threat too with PWats around/greater than
2" in place and slower pacing/progression. This weakly
convective activity should continue into the day Sunday as the
mid- level wave passes, eventually exiting eastward and allowing
subsidence through the profile to take over. Risk for any
strong to severe continues to appear very low, and echoed in the
SPC Marginal Risks for remainder of today and Sunday for the
immediate area.

Peering into early-middle of next week/work week, mid-upper level
pattern remains weak and devoid of strong/high confidence systems
moving through the region. Deterministic guidance does still
generally show a weak mid-level disturbance lifting in from Oklahoma
early in the week, but does tend to vary in track/path. This appears
to be a remnant of the mid-level shortwave that will move across
this weekend and/or combined with additional weak shortwave activity
lifting out of Mexico/Texas regions. Within 12z deterministic
guidance, trend tends to be a bit weaker and further south. Meaning
tending to be drier for central to northern Missouri, unless you buy
into the 12z NAM. Given uncertainty in how this weak disturbance
will evolve/drift into the area, don`t see a reason to deviate from
NBM slight to chance PoPs. Will note, the leisurely pace of the
disturbance could lend toward some heavier rainfall potential and
related hydrologic issues with potential for >1.75" PWats and
prevailing warm rain processes should a wetter (more northerly)
track prevail. That said, 12z GEFS/Euro Ensemble members have eased
away from as many 2"+ members that had been seen previously.
Especially as you work north of our far southern CWA. The threat for
heavy rainfall  would primarily be south of I-70. Otherwise, does not
appear to be much risk for strong/severe convection into the
early/mid-week time frame.

Mid-week onward, northern stream becomes a bit more active with
depictions of shortwave activity dropping down into the Central
Plains. Accompanying cyclogenesis to push a warm front into/through
the area and allow for some additional chances for showers/storms
Thursday and into Friday as cold front moves through and surface
ridge builds in. Much to unfold prior to this though before
assessing any true strong/severe potential.

Throughout the forecast period, expect temperatures to
generally/gradually rise a few degrees back into the upper 80s/90s
with southerly surface flow anticipated to prevail through mid-week.
Dew point values remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s too may
push heat index values toward upper 90s or 100 at times, especially
in/around typically warmer urban areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Periods of MVFR ceilings will be the main concern within this
TAF issuance. With recent rains and cooler temperatures,
blossoming cumulus field has yielded anywhere from FEW to BKN
MVFR ceilings, largely around 2kft currently. Do expect ceilings
to continue to rise with diurnal heating, but there are also
pockets of thicker MVFR cloud cover within the CU field, making
it a bit difficult to time and assess potential impacts to TAF
sites. This most directly affects the KC Metro sites,
KMCI/KMKC/KIXD. With expectation for improvement, have generally
gone with SCT mentions at KSTJ/KMCI/KMKC, but do have prevailing
BKN020 at KIXD for a couple more hours with a thicker deck
overhead and in the vicinity visible on satellite. Winds tending
to be light out of the north, becoming more variable this
evening and through remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis