875
FXUS63 KEAX 261139
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
639 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The flash flooding potential continues overnight into Saturday
  Morning, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri
  River due to repeated thunderstorms moving over the same
  areas.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again
  Saturday afternoon from west-central MO toward northeast MO.

- Hot and humid conditions return this weekend and persist
  through the middle of the next week.

- Wetter conditions are expected to return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A shortwave trough continues to move across the state overnight into
Saturday morning, with ample large scale lift for numerous showers
and thunderstorms. The atmosphere is very moist tonight, with
precipitable water values around 2 inches, which is near the
maximum for this time of year. The main weather concern in the near
term will be impressive rainfall totals on already saturated ground,
leading to a flash flooding threat overnight for locations that
receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Rainfall rates under
thunderstorm cores are expected to be in the 1 to 3 inch per hour
range. Currently, high-resolution forecast models focus this threat
on areas north of the Missouri River. A Flood Watch remains in
effect until the early morning hours for the areas most likely to be
affected.

The most recent models lessen the intensity of overnight convection,
and radar trends this evening have been in line with this latest
trend. However, vigilance is encouraged nevertheless, as flooding is
harder to detect overnight.

Saturday will see another round of scattered thunderstorms with
a more marginal chance for continued flooding and severe weather
concerns. Otherwise, a drier pattern in store through mid week
under a strong upper level ridge. As a result, temperatures will
be back on the rise and more of concern for excessive heat
headlines. Afternoon high temperatures back into the 90s Sunday
onward through Tuesday with heat index values over the 105
degree mark due to the higher humidity values. Once this ridge
breaks down and pushes back west, expect not as high
temperatures in the afternoon with the next chances for
precipitation Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Isolated showers continue in the general vicinity of the
terminals, so have a PROB30 group for showers through around 14z
this morning. Meanwhile, given the saturation of the low levels
and the calm winds, fog has developed at the terminals, with
IFR/MVFR CIGs at STJ/IXD/MCI (MKC remains P6SM). Fog should mix
out by around 14z, returning conditions to VFR. There will be
a slight chance for convective development in the vicinity of
the KC metro terminals late tonight, but confidence was not high
enough to mention at this time. Nearly calm winds should become
south southwesterly around 8 knots or so by later this morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ033-039-040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO RIV
AVIATION...BMW