537
FXUS63 KEAX 241739
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unsettled pattern leading to showers and thunderstorms mainly
  south of highway 50 this morning, with a renewed threat for
  precipitation again tonight.  Heaviest rainfall looks to be
  focused across southern Kansas-southern Missouri.

* Additional showers and thunderstorms expected through Memorial
  Day.

* Gradual warming trend expected through the week, but still could
  see a non severe passing shower or storm late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Stationary front remains situated well to the south across southern
Oklahoma into southern Arkansas.  Low level jet across the southern
plains south of the boundary has lead to the development of clusters
of storms across the central plains.  PWAT values are roughly ~1.5
inches, and with weakly capped/weakly unstable atmosphere,
convection will be fairly efficient in producing rainfall. MPD for
the central plains early this morning discusses the potential for
storms to orient parallel to the low level convergence that could
lead to training of storms. As such, will allow the flood watch to
remain through the holiday weekend, despite models continuing with
the trend southward of heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri
into eastern Oklahoma/northern Arkansas. Rain chances this morning
look best mainly south of highway 50, with only an errant shower
farther north. As the low level jet weakens this morning, convection
is expected to weaken and possibly lead to break this afternoon.
Atmosphere only remains weakly capped, so kept 20% chance of rain
throughout the day south of I-70.  Abundant cloud cover and easterly
winds will keep temperatures unseasonably cool in the 60s throughout
the day.

As low level jet increases across Texas and Oklahoma tonight expect
convection to redevelop again in similar area tonight across
southern Kansas into southern Missouri.  With the increasing low
level jet, PWAT values spike back closer to 1.5" again overnight.
CAMs keep the heaviest rain just south of the forecast area, but
with the potential for training storms once again, the flood watch
for Lynn, Bates and Henry counties is reasonable though the heaviest
rainfall will likely be situated farther south. While instability
looks to be limited, strong wind shear aloft may support a strong
storm or two with the main threats being a near severe storm for
wind or hail.

Showers and thunderstorms may continue into the daylight hours on
Sunday with a series of weak short waves moving through the region.
With the cloud cover and off and on showers possible, have lowered
forecast highs closer to 25 percentile.

The wet and unsettled pattern continues into Memorial Day with
relatively little pattern change.  The diffuse upper level low
across the western US reorganizes into a cutoff low across the Upper
Midwest Monday night into Tuesday.  This low gradually shifts east
by late week, allowing temperatures to gradually trend back closer
towards seasonal norms.  There are still some poorly forecast short
waves that are expected late week somewhere in the central US that
could lead to a passing shower/non-severe storm in the Thursday-
Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions expected for most of the TAF period. Winds out of the
west with a few gusts to around 17-19 kts through the day. A round
of showers possible late tonight for all terminals which could
reduce visibilities and lower ceilings. There is some uncertainty
with location and intensity of showers. An isolated thunderstorm or
two is possible. Another round of showers is possible early
tomorrow morning which could reduce conditions again mainly for
KMKC, KMCI, and KIXD.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MOZ053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Collier/WFO EAX