662
FXUS63 KEAX 242317
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
517 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front moves through the area this afternoon into
  overnight Monday with temperatures dropping nearly 20 degrees
  F across the area.

- Next chance for precipitation (25-35%) will be Wednesday into
  Thanksgiving. Rain looks more likely, but a wintry mix is
  possible.

- Below normal temperatures expected after Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front, situated across far southeast Nebraska as of 20Z, is
expected to move through the region this evening. There is a very
slim chance (below 10%) for a sprinkle or two for central MO with
FROPA. Increased cloud coverage associated with the system will keep
most low temperatures above freezing tonight into Monday morning.
Low temperatures tomorrow morning for ~75% of the CWA are expected
to range in the 40s. Areas west of I-35 and north of I-70 will see
lows in the low to mid 30s with the most northwestern areas closer
to freezing. With continued cold air advection through the day
Monday, temperatures will only warm slightly through the daylight
hours.  Drier air filtering into the region later in the day coupled
with broadscale subsidence out ahead of an approaching surface
ridge, decreasing winds and clearing skies will allow for a 15-20
degree (F) drop in temperatures for Monday night bringing us 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Tuesday afternoon, the surface ridge moves to the southeast of the
area shifting our winds to the south, thus starting a weak warming
trend. Tuesday afternoon is expected to be similar to Monday but
with calmer winds due to the influence of the surface ridge.

Some uncertainty still remains with the system moving through the
area on Wednesday. Broadscale mid-level troughing on the eastern
side of Canada will extend back into the Four Corners Region with
the surface low approaching from the southwest passing through TX
and OK. Broadscale lift and instability provided by the associated
cold front will result in a 25%-35% chance for rain Wednesday
morning into the afternoon. Some areas north of HWY-36 may see a
wintry mix but chances are slowly fading. The timing of the precip
does not seem to line up with the best thermodynamic profile for
snow. Increased cloud coverage may also help keep temperatures
warmer than freezing to ward off any snow chances. Best chances for
snow at this time seem to remain to the north of the forecast area.
Models trends have been fairly inconsistent, but more recent model
runs seem increasingly bearish on the snow potential (10-15%).

Thanksgiving seems to be cold and dry after the passage of the
surface front. Below normal temperatures will be the trend for the
second half of the week with low temperatures Friday morning
potentially dipping into the mid teens for the northern half of MO.
The pattern stays somewhat active with another system expected to
move through the area next Saturday which may deliver a
more promising snow potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions expected for the first few hours of the period. MVFR
cloud bases are likely to be observed over the terminals starting
around 07-08Z, lingering until 16Z-17Z according to forecast
soundings. Additionally, winds are forecast to pick up speed
around this same timeframe following a frontal passage. Breezy
conditions will persist throughout the day tomorrow with
occasional gusts over 25 knots possible, before relaxing after
sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Hayes