003
FXUS63 KEAX 070421
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1121 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* One more dry day today, then rain chances return overnight and
  through Thursday.
  - Best chances (40%-75%+) over southern areas Wed
  - A few non-severe thunderstorms possible

* Seasonal temperatures thru work week, then bit warmer this weekend
  - Work week: mainly mid 60s - mid 70s
  - Weekend: upper 70s - low 80s
  - Normal highs this time of year around 70 deg F

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The bulk of the active weather this forecast period will reside in
the short term. The driving feature of interest is an upper level
closed low that is centered over eastern NM and will move into the
northern Panhandle of TX this evening before moving into western
Oklahoma by tomorrow morning. This afternoon, a upper wave
associated with the closed low is moving toward the area from
the southern Plains but, is running into some very dry air in
place below 15kft. This will keep conditions dry through this
afternoon and evening. Another wave moving into the area out
ahead of the closed upper low will move in overnight into
tomorrow morning and this will have the chance to bring the
first round of showers to the area. Wednesday afternoon, the
closed upper low will move into southeastern Kansas. With better
upper level support (albeit still weak) and diurnal heating
providing 300-600J/Kg of MUCAPE tomorrow afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms will be possible however, severe weather is not
expected. Wednesday night the upper level low moves into the
area continuing shower chances as in opens up into an open wave.
By Thursday, there is an elongated trough extending from the
Great Lakes back into the local area. This will continue the
chance for scattered showers and diurnally driven thunderstorms
on Thursday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in
he mid 60s to lower 70s.

Friday through early next week looks to remain mostly dry with
mainly above normal temperatures. Friday a surface ridge of high
pressure will build into the area from the Upper Midwest. This will
bring a return to dry conditions with weak mixing providing near
normal highs in the low to mid 70s. This weekend the area will come
under upper level ridging allowing highs to move 5 to 10 degrees
above normal into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Monday and Tuesday, a
upper level low trapped under the broader upper level ridge will
move from the Gulf Coast up the Mississippi River Valley. Although
the bulk of the precipitation associated with this feature will
remain east of the area as it "breathes out" during the afternoon a
few showers/storms could effect the eastern CWA both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon where slight chance (15-20%) PoPs reside. Highs
Monday and Tuesday are expected to reach the upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Latest guidance has pulled back the lowest flight conditions
with the rain Wednesday afternoon. Have trended as low as low MVFR
at IXD during the afternoon and MVFR for MKC and MCI. Winds
continue to look easterly through the forecast at 5-10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB