517
FXUS63 KEAX 102103
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms possible to likely later this evening into
  the overnight and early morning hours of Monday.
     - Locally moderate to heavy rainfall remains possible.

- Another round of showers and storms possible Monday afternoon
  and evening. Locally moderate rainfall and perhaps a stronger
  storm or two will be possible.

- Drier conditions and warming temperatures are likely by mid to
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

H5 analysis shows longwave mid/upper troughing across much of
the north central CONUS extending southward into the Plains and
Midwest with a perturbation/vort max traveling through northern
MO and Iowa this afternoon and another embedded shortwave trough
traversing the southwest periphery of the trough across the
Intermountain West and into Colorado. At the surface, the cold
front currently resides essentially along Interstate 35 in
Missouri before curling back to the west through eastern
Kansas. Convection that moved through much of the region this
morning and early afternoon has likely stabilized us enough to
preclude the development of convection this afternoon and early
evening, and has also required lowering today`s MaxT
temperatures for most locations. A reservoir of 3500 J/kg of ML
CAPE still exists along the Oklahoma/Kansas border north of
Tulsa, with the CAPE gradient in place in the vicinity of Linn
County KS and Bates County, MO. And with the low level jet
expected to ramp up later this evening and the stalled front and
other remnant outflow boundaries still present, the 18z HRRR
solution of convection developing later this evening across SE
Kansas, building eastward into western Missouri (south of Kansas
City) seems reasonable (although the recent performance of the
CAMs, including the HRRR, has been poor at best).

The aforementioned shortwave trough descending out of the
Intermountain West into Colorado should help generate convection
across eastern Colorado this afternoon, which should then grow
upscale into a full blown severe MCS across the OK Panhandle
into SW Kansas by late tonight, with this MCS potentially
staying together (albeit weakening) as it makes it long trek
across Kansas. This (even further weakened) MCS may even make
it as far east as the KC metro by tomorrow morning, with the
HRRR suggesting the potential for it to become an MCV. With
PWATs on the order of 1.6 to 1.8 inches, locally moderate to
heavy rainfall will be possible with both the convection late
this evening into tonight and the potential morning MCS. As
such, have elected to hold onto the flood watch through 7 AM for
the I-70 corridor and points south, even through the threat for
high impact and widespread flooding has definitely subsided
quite a bit. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible tomorrow afternoon and evening as the shortwave moves
from Colorado toward Missouri with the stalled out front still
lingering across the CWA. While we are not currently outlooked
under even a marginal risk for severe storms from SPC, model
soundings show up to 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE with around 25 knots
of 0 to 6 km bulk shear with modestly steep lapse rates. Thus, I
would not be shocked if we end up being upgraded to a marginal
risk for severe weather for tomorrow afternoon. PWATs will
remain high, so localized moderate rainfall will be possible.

Rain chances should linger Tuesday as the front remains stalled
across the CWA, but it should eventually undergo frontolysis
and eventually completely dissolve. Mid level ridging should
gradually build in, leading to warmer and drier conditions, by
mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Convection has exited the TAF terminals to the east, with the
terminals likely to remain dry at least through the afternoon
and evening hours. Meanwhile, VFR conditions should persist. A
mesoscale convective system may develop late tonight, primarily
south of the KC metro terminals, but it is possible that the
northern extend could impact them. Thus, have a PROB30 group
for -SHRA between 5z and 9z Monday morning for the KC metro
terminals. Another window for showers and perhaps some storms
looks to be between 12z and 15z Monday morning as an MCS may
move eastward out of Kansas. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs are likely to
develop by around 12z Monday morning at the terminals. Winds
have turned northwesterly as of 18z this afternoon, but should
eventually turn back to southerly and eventually become light
and variable by tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ028-029-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW