407
ACUS03 KWNS 171928
SWODY3
SPC AC 171927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for organized severe weather is expected to remain low on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge will continue to amplify across the Rockies
and into parts of the Plains on Tuesday. A low amplitude trough will
persist in the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a
cold front will continue southward through the central Plains into
the southern Plains.

Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely develop to the south and
west of the surface boundary. However, mid-level flow and effective
shear will be rather weak. In general, given weak overall forcing,
isolated to widely scattered storms are expected. Some of these
storms could be stronger and produce strong wind gusts.
Predictability of where this will occur is too low to warrant severe
probabilities.

Modestly moist upslope flow into the Front Range could promote
isolated storm development. Shear should be somewhat stronger in
eastern Colorado. Confidence in storm coverage (given the
intensifying ridge aloft) and storms being able to move off the
terrain remains low, however.

..Wendt.. 08/17/2025

$$