714
ACUS03 KWNS 132053
SWODY3
SPC AC 132052

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.

...Discussion...
An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights
across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present
somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline
extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front
across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern
Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe
storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with
rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along
the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level
lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability
supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to
portions of northern Minnesota.

Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale
forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early
evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is
forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated
storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear
and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm
risk.

The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for
strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an
ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak
large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems
appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support
higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of
higher storm coverage appears likely.

..Bentley.. 08/13/2025

$$