231
ACUS03 KWNS 181932
SWODY3
SPC AC 181931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probabilities for severe storms Friday through Friday night appear
less than 5 percent across the U.S.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will remain strong and largely zonal over the
southern US Day 3/Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough will move
eastward toward the Atlantic Coast as subtropical ridging slowly
builds over the Gulf Coast. A second low-amplitude trough over the
Southwest will eject eastward and move into the Southeast early
Saturday. A deep surface low associated with the first trough will
occlude over the Great Lakes as its associated cold front continues
to surge eastward across the upper OH valley. Trailing portions of
the front will begin to stall across the Southeast and lower MS
Valley Friday evening.

...Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast States...
To the south of the strong southwesterly flow aloft, gradual
moistening of the low-level air mass is likely Friday and Friday
night along and south of the stalled front. While deep-layer ascent
will be limited along the anticyclonic curved portion of the strong
subtropical jet through much of the day, the approach of the
secondary upper trough may support increased ascent late.

As mid/upper forcing for ascent moves eastward, it is expected to
remain mostly to the cool side of the front. Some potential for
stronger thunderstorm development seems likely to become focused
along or just to the cool side of the frontal zone late Friday night
into early Saturday. Low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy appear
generally weak despite strong flow aloft. Model guidance also varies
significantly on destabilization and moistening near the front.
This, along with the late arrival of the stronger forcing suggests
that while some stronger elevated storms are possible near the
front, the risk is too conditional to introduce probabilities.

...Upper OH Valley...
As the surface low occludes, a strong cold front associated with the
advancing upper trough will surge through portions of eastern OH and
PA. A shallow line of weak convection is possible along the front
owing to weak low-level moisture advection and strong ascent tied to
the front. Largely devoid of meaningful buoyancy, little to no
lightning is expected. Whoever, the presence of 100+ kt of mid-level
flow could allow mixing of a few stronger wind gusts to the surface
through the morning Friday. Minimal buoyancy and the lack of more
robust moisture will preclude any severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 02/18/2026

$$