876
ACUS03 KWNS 051912
SWODY3
SPC AC 051911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Damaging winds should be the primary hazard.

...Southern Plains to the Southeast...

A series of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the central
Plains and the central/southern Appalachians Saturday morning,
providing a belt of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow across the
region. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across OK at the beginning of
the period. This activity may weaken through the morning as it
shifts east into AR through midday. Downstream across the Mid-South,
a corridor of moderate to strong instability is forecast amid rich
boundary-layer moisture. Convection will likely redevelop/intensify
by early afternoon and shift east across parts the TN Valley to SC
through the evening hours. Additional convection may develop across
eastern NC during the afternoon within a moderately unstable airmass
and within enhanced mid/upper flow associated with the eastern upper
shortwave trough. Swaths of scattered damaging gusts will be the
main hazard with this activity.

More isolated convection may develop along residual outflow and
within a corridor of strong heating and low-level upslope flow
across the southern High Plains late Saturday afternoon. A deeply
mixed boundary layer and supercell wind profiles amid steep midlevel
lapse rates could support isolated severe wind/hail despite weak
forcing for ascent.

...Eastern Dakotas into northwest MN...

A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
develop southeast across the northern Plains on Saturday.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, with surface dewpoints
generally remaining in the upper 40s to mid 50s F ahead of a
southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, cooling aloft and
surface heating into the 80s will support weak instability and
steepened low-level lapse rates. Vertically veering wind profiles,
with 30-40 kt flow from 850-500 mb will support organized cells.
Isolated strong gusts could occur with this activity during the
afternoon and early evening.

..Leitman.. 06/05/2025

$$