982
ACUS03 KWNS 191858
SWODY3
SPC AC 191857

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a
trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will
move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday
morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East
Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains.

A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from
western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon,
and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary,
severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will
experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to
the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is
forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak.

Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where
lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity
may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN
with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail
cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel
lapse rates and minimal melting.

..Jewell.. 04/19/2025

$$