674
ACUS03 KWNS 170627
SWODY3
SPC AC 170626

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC/NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose
a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern
Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on
Sunday.

...Southern Appalachians to Coastal Carolinas/Southeast Virginia...

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. A
couple of embedded vorticity maxima within the base of the trough
will move across the southern Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic
region through early evening. Deep layer westerly flow will remain
modest, but a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in
place. Large instability coupled with PW values near 2 inches will
support isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A
corridor of relative greater risk may develop from southeast VA into
eastern NC near a stalled frontal boundary and where vertical shear
may be modestly stronger (25 kt effective shear).

...Eastern ND into northern MN...

Northwesterly flow aloft will strengthen on Sunday/Sunday night as
upper ridging flattens a bit as an upper shortwave trough emerges
over the Canadian Prairies. Vertically veering wind profiles will
foster 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells
could develop. Some potential for capping could limit storm
coverage, but any storm that develops could be a higher-based
supercell capable of severe hail and strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

$$