Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
525 ACUS03 KWNS 191919 SWODY3 SPC AC 191918 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 $$