243
ACUS03 KWNS 171932
SWODY3
SPC AC 171931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, and
strong wind gusts from the central/northern Plains to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. A tornado threat may also exist across the
Ozarks to Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Central High Plains to the northern Plains...
Moderate instability with moderate to effective shear will be
present across a large portion of the central High Plains into the
northern Plains on Wednesday. As a weak mid-level shortwave trough
crosses the region, storms are expected to develop across the
Colorado Rockies and move into the adjacent Plains Wednesday
afternoon. A hot, well-mixed environment will support severe wind
gusts, but given the moderate to strong mid-upper level flow, a
supercell could develop which would have a greater hail threat.

Farther north, storm coverage is less certain as heights are
forecast to rise slightly through the afternoon. However, a front
will exist across the region which may be a focus for isolated
storms. The wind profile should support supercells with any activity
that develops. The primary threats with this activity would be large
hail and severe wind gusts.

...Central Plains...
Convective coverage is less certain across the central Plains as it
is removed from the primary surface features. However, a supercell
environment will be in place and some guidance (such as the RRFS,
ECMWF, and FV3) have storms in this vicinity, likely related to
outflow from morning convection across Nebraska. If these storms
form any supercells would be capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts.

...Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A more focused corridor of storms may develop along a frontal zone
across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast with a 50 to 55 knot mid-level jet streak
across the region. Supercell should be the primary storm mode with
any activity within this zone. In addition, this activity could pose
some tornado threat as hodographs show moderate low-level
directional shear and a warm front in the region.

..Bentley.. 08/17/2026

$$