031
ACUS03 KWNS 031925
SWODY3
SPC AC 031924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail
possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley
across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies
during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward
across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent
with more substantial cooling aloft.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave
will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by
late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F
dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and
substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are
expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS.
Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be
ruled out.

To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold
front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along
with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support
sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These
cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of
western SD and NE late.

For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled
front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building
across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed
boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep
low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the
front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here,
with mixed storm modes.

..Jewell.. 07/03/2025

$$