267
ACUS03 KWNS 191901
SWODY3
SPC AC 191900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the
eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on Thursday, with severe gusts and
hail possible.

...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota...

An upper shortwave trough will develop east/southeast across the
Canadian Prairies and into portions of the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest on Thursday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper level
westerly flow to the region as a surface cold front develops
east/southeast through the period. Ahead of the cold front, a
somewhat narrow corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place,
supporting moderate destabilization. Increasing large-scale ascent
with the approach of the front and upper trough will foster isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development, most likely during the
evening/nighttime hours. However, a few storms could develop during
the late afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear will support organized
convection, and an isolated wind/hail risk may accompany this
activity.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2025

$$