589
ACUS03 KWNS 170739
SWODY3
SPC AC 170738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southwest into the
southern Plains vicinity Wednesday into early Thursday.

...Southern Plains...

An upper trough is expected to be oriented from the western Great
Basin toward southern CA/northern Baja Wednesday morning, and track
slowly eastward toward the Four Corners/southern Rockies by Thursday
morning. Forecast guidance has trended slowly with the eastward
ejection of the upper trough. As a result, stronger southwesterly
flow, and a strengthening low-level jet are not expected to develop
over portions of the southern Rockies into OK/TX until after 00-06z.
This will also delay any stronger forcing for ascent until late in
the forecast period.

At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf
moisture northward across TX/OK and the south-central states.
Forecast soundings suggest capping in the 850-700 mb layer will
persist for much of the diurnal period. Given nebulous forcing,
outside of persistent, modest warm advection, it is unclear if/how
much convection may develop across the warm sector during the day.
The 00z RRFS suggests elevated convection may develop near the
moisture gradient/surface trough across west-central TX and toward
the Red River in southwest OK by late afternoon. While vertical
shear would support at least loosely organized convection, low to
midlevel flow will be somewhat weak, and elevated instability modest
(generally less than 1000 J/kg). Later in the period (after 06z),
large-scale ascent will increase and a modest southerly low-level
jet should intensify as the upper trough approaches NM. Additional
convection may develop late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning amid a stronger mass response.

Some risk for marginal hail could accompany stronger convection.
However, confidence is low regarding coverage, intensity and timing
of any more organized/stronger storm development, especially given
the trend toward a more slowly/later ejecting trough. Will hold off
introducing severe probabilities at this time, but probs could
become necessary with later updates.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2025

$$