944
ACUS03 KWNS 061923
SWODY3
SPC AC 061922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to
evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are
possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere
in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal
Plain.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central
portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to
migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the
upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the
Southeast and Appalachians.

...Southern Plains...

Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will
result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX
and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across
the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest
OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich
boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a
corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle
southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with
elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings.

Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and
adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon.
Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a
low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is
favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant
severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e
gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very
large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any
cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east
toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model
trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further
east.

...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity...

The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario
will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is
forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher
dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS.
Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer
moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake
Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly
capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from
late afternoon into the evening.

...Southeast...

Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the
NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection
expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally
moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2025

$$