745
ACUS03 KWNS 031924
SWODY3
SPC AC 031923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a
larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet
streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a
closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the
ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing
frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An
unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front
which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on
Saturday and Saturday night.

...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells
across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring
dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely
support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as
it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will
strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such
as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into
Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone.
The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing
and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust
morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater
supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced
available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting
mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface
low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a
significant severe weather threat on Saturday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley...
Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front
from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning.
Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant
destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist
airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south
of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms
from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

$$