172
ACUS03 KWNS 221907
SWODY3
SPC AC 221906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal
Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will continue through the Gulf towards the
western Florida Peninsula on Monday. In the Northwest, a compact,
strong shortwave will pivot through the region during the afternoon
and evening. A modest surface low will accompany the eastern trough,
with a weak surface boundary draped across central Florida.

Though shear across central/southern Florida will be sufficient for
organized convection. Weak lapse rates and muted surface heating due
to preceding clouds/precipitation are expected to limit potential
for severe weather. A conditionally stronger storm would be possible
if surface heating is greater than expected near the boundary. This
outcome is too uncertain for severe probabilities.

With a stronger shortwave than Sunday day, potential for
thunderstorms will be slightly higher. Wind fields will be strong,
but buoyancy is not expected to be overly large. A stronger,
convectively-enhanced gust is possible right along the coast, but
potential for more than an isolated/marginal severe concern is
rather low.

..Wendt.. 02/22/2025

$$