945
ACUS03 KWNS 181931
SWODY3
SPC AC 181930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ND
AND FAR NORTHEAST MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening/night
across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana.

...Northern ND and far northeast MT...
A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress across the
Northwest on Wednesday into the northern High Plains and southern
Canadian Prairies Wednesday night. This should be accompanied by an
initially pronounced upper-level jet streak that should weaken late
as it impinges on the northern Great Plains ridge. Stronger
large-scale ascent may largely remain north of the international
border until early morning Thursday. NCEP guidance suggests
convection will be sparse before this timeframe with appreciable
MLCIN. Non-NCEP guidance suggests potential for evening storms along
the surface trough/developing front. Consensus indicates a confined
low-probability severe hail/wind threat is warranted, with spatial
details becoming likely to become clearer in later cycles.

...NC Outer Banks...
12Z guidance continues a westward trend to the track of Hurricane
Erin. As NHC noted a larger-than-average surrounding wind field,
low-probability tornado potential may overspread the Outer Banks as
early as Wednesday evening with potential for outer convective band
formation. However, adequate low-level SRH/hodograph curvature for a
tornado risk seems likely to be displaced until Wednesday night. Any
earlier arrival/farther westward track could warrant a level 1-MRGL
risk highlight in later cycles.

...South-Central States...
A somewhat similar setup to D2 will be displaced southward on D3
with scattered to numerous pulse-type storms expected during the
afternoon to early evening. However, the convectively modified
surface cold front should become more nebulous and mid-level
northerlies will remain weak. In addition, the buoyancy plume should
have variable pockets of weak to strong MLCAPE, especially in the
wake of extensive convection on D2. Will defer to later cycles for
possible microburst/localized damaging wind highlight(s).

..Grams.. 08/18/2025

$$