284
ACUS03 KWNS 030719
SWODY3
SPC AC 030718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH CAROLINA
INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing scattered damaging gusts are possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. A couple
instances of severe wind/hail with isolated thunderstorms may also
occur across portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persevere across the Plains states, with upper
troughs remaining in place across the Interior West and East Coast.
Similar to Day 2, the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be
primarily constrained to the eastern CONUS, where subtle mid-level
impulses will overspread rich low-level moisture, contributing to
enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to encourage damaging wind
production with the stronger storms.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
At least one mid-level impulse will traverse the OH Valley to NC
corridor on Saturday, perhaps accompanied by a morning cluster of
thunderstorms. Regardless, the impulse is poised to reach the lee of
the Appalachians by Saturday afternoon, where upper 60s to lower 70s
F surface dewpoints await. By this time, boundary layer mixing will
encourage either the intensification of ongoing storms with the
approaching impulse, the development of new storms, or both, all
along a differential heating zone left behind by previous day`s
storms. 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place, along with 30+ kts
of effective bulk shear driven by modest northwesterly flow aloft.
Multicells are the expected storm mode, with severe gusts and
perhaps an instance or two of hail.

Farther to the northwest, strong surface heating along an effective
warm front, characterized by mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5
C/km mid-level lapse rates (hence 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will
encourage isolated thunderstorm development across portions of the
OH Valley. Vertical shear and ascent should be relatively weak, so
the severe threat should be sparse. Nonetheless, any storms that
mature and sustain themselves may pose a severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026

$$