417
ACUS03 KWNS 291922
SWODY3
SPC AC 291921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Discussion...
Heights will increase with the upper-level ridge on Wednesday across
the central US. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue near
and south of a surface cold front extending from the central Plains
into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. The increasing
subsidence influence from the high and generally weak lapse rates
will lead to less widespread severe potential with thunderstorms
across the central Plains into the Missouri/Ohio Valley. Given the
moderate to strong instability, an occasional stronger gust from a
wet micro burst could not be entirely ruled out, however, this risk
appears too isolated to include probabilities.

Along the edge of the upper level ridge across the
Carolinas/Virginia near to the front, a few stronger storms may be
possible. However, despite some steeper low-level lapse rates, poor
mid-level lapse rates and little to no shear will likely negate any
more widespread organized severe risk.

..Thornton.. 07/29/2025

$$