885
ACUS03 KWNS 141916
SWODY3
SPC AC 141915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough extending from MT into AZ will eject northeastward
toward the northern Plains on Thursday, with a leading midlevel
speed max moving northeastward out of CO. Through 00Z, a surface low
will pivot northeastward across the Dakotas with a warm front from
eastern ND into northwest MN. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend
southwestward into eastern CO. Ahead of this front, southerly winds
across the Plains will maintain areas of low to mid 50s F dewpoints.

Early in the day, an expansive area of rain and elevated
thunderstorms is expected in the warm advection zone from MT into ND
and northern MN. Though not severe, small hail cannot be ruled out
with some of the stronger elevated cores.

As the warm sector develops to the south, a small area of larger
instability is forecast from eastern CO into western KS and
southwest NE near the front/wind shift. Even so, MLCAPE values are
likely to remain below 1000 J/kg. However, heating near the front
should allow for scattered cells to develop, and favorable supercell
wind profiles will favor hail production.

..Jewell.. 10/14/2025

$$