233
ACUS03 KWNS 100626
SWODY3
SPC AC 100625

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

...Central Plains to southern IA/northern MO...

Broad upper troughing will overspread the Great Lakes to the
Northeast while shortwave upper ridging develops over the high
Plains ahead of another upper trough moving into the Northwest. This
pattern is will keep any stronger westerly flow aloft across the
northern tier of the U.S. However, a cold front is expected to
extend from the western Great Lakes into northern KS by midday. The
front will gradually move south/southeast across IA into northern
MO, while the western extent of the boundary stalls and weakens over
KS. A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface
boundary from KS into the Mid-MS Valley while a plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates spread eastward across the region. This will
result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability from central
KS into southern IA/northern MO. Vertical shear will be modest, but
sufficient for at least transient organized convection. Hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop
within the weakly forced regime along the front. Some guidance
suggests additional convection may develop along the stalled
boundary across KS during the nighttime hours as a southwesterly
low-level jet increases. If this occurs, some potential for MCS
development will exist.

..Leitman.. 09/10/2026

$$