393
ACUS03 KWNS 060732
SWODY3
SPC AC 060731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX
PANHANDLE TO WESTERN NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
SOUTHEAST VA TO SOUTH GA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very
large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central
States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will slowly move southeast across the
Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will drift east into
northwest ON, with an occluded cold front arcing south then
southwestward across the Mid-MS Valley to the south-central High
Plains by Sunday afternoon. A lower-amplitude mid-level trough, with
embedded MCVs from prior D2 convection, should shift east from the
eastern Midwest/OH Valley across the Appalachians by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D2 in the
wake of multiple MCSs, buoyancy should become large to extreme from
the TX Panhandle across the OK/TX Red River Valley by Sunday
afternoon. Guidance remains quite insistent on initial convective
development occurring as the trailing cold front pushes south into
the OK/TX Panhandles. With mid to upper wind profiles becoming
west-northwesterly, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong
instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very
large hail. Consolidating outflows and a strengthening low-level jet
in the evening will yield increasingly widespread storms that should
congeal into a forward-propagating MCS. This type of setup is
conducive to potentially intense MCS development and destructive
wind gusts. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist
overnight perhaps reaching the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

...Southeast...
The degree of ongoing convection on Sunday morning yields low
confidence on how broad a region of scattered severe-storm potential
exists across the Southeast, amid enhanced mid-level westerlies
augmenting by remnant MCVs. The Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain and
adjacent Piedmont remains the best potential area for robust
boundary-layer heating. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe
hail should be the main hazards from afternoon storms.

...Ozarks to IL...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible along this portion
of the cold front, mainly focused from late afternoon to
mid-evening. The mid-level jetlet associated with the Upper Midwest
trough should impinge on the northern IL portion of the front where
instability is expected to be weak. Some mid-level flow enhancement
should overlap a progressively more unstable airmass to the
southwest, yielding potential for large hail and damaging wind.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$