891
ACUS03 KWNS 151911
SWODY3
SPC AC 151910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low on Thursday.

...Discussion...
On Thursday, a large upper trough will move into eastern Canada,
with height falls with the base of the trough moving across the
Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, heights will fall
over the Southeast as the upper high center shifts back west into
the southern Plains. To the west, an upper low will drift from
northern CA into southern OR, with cool temperatures aloft over much
of the Great Basin.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains
to Great Lakes, with a weak surface trough extending from the
central Plains into the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic. Upper
60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along this zone, resulting
in areas of moderate instability. Weaker instability will exist
ahead of the Pacific Northwest low, and ahead of a cold front
pushing across northern NV, eastern OR, and western ID.

Severe storm chances appear relatively low over the Pacific
Northwest given weak instability and marginal shear, while the zone
from MO into PA suffers from poor lapse rates aloft and/or minimal
shear.

..Jewell.. 09/15/2026

$$