396
ACUS03 KWNS 201921
SWODY3
SPC AC 201920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast Virginia and North
Carolina.

...Discussion...
Upper-level troughing will remain in place across the eastern US on
D3/Wednesday, with several shortwave impulses rotating through. A
cold front will be located roughly from the Mid-Atlantic south into
the Carolinas and western Tennessee. Moisture will be largely
scoured out behind this front, with the more favorable plume of
moist air remaining east of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge
Mountains across southern New England into the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Daytime heating will be maximized from the
Mid-Atlantic southward to the Carolinas, where moderate instability
will be realized by the afternoon. Instability will be more marginal
with north extent into New England, though strong deep layer shear
may still support a few organized storms. Widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected near and ahead of the cold
front by the afternoon, with the main hazard being damaging wind,
with the greatest risk across parts of VA/NC and vicinity.

Outer bands of Tropical Depression Two will bring thunderstorms
potential inland across the Gulf States by D3/Wednesday. The tornado
threat appears to be too marginal for an outlook area at this time.
See advisories from the National Hurricane Center for more
information on this potential (nhc.noaa.gov).

..Thornton.. 07/20/2026

$$