718
ACUS03 KWNS 101904
SWODY3
SPC AC 101903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

...Discussion...
A large upper low/trough will progress eastward across northern
Manitoba and Ontario, with stronger flow aloft over the Northern
Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Much of that area will become stable
due to high pressure building southward into NE/IA.

The wind shift with the associated cold front will push into KS and
northern MO, beneath the southern fringe of the 30 kt midlevel
westerlies. At the surface, strong heating will occur south of the
cold front, with gradual height rises.

While predictability is low, isolated strong to perhaps severe
storms cannot be ruled out near the cold front where mid 60s F
dewpoints will persist, and CIN should be minimal at peak heating.
MUCAPE of 2000+ J/kg seems reasonable, and the steep lapse rate
profiles along with winds lightly veering with height should support
locally strong to severe gusts with multicellular storm mode. It is
uncertain how many storms may form due to the upper ridging.

..Jewell.. 09/10/2026

$$