237
ACUS03 KWNS 190716
SWODY3
SPC AC 190715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop over parts of the
northern Plains on Thursday, with severe gusts and hail possible.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across
Saskatchewan on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward
into the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a north-to-south axis
of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon across parts of the
eastern South Dakotas. During the late afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the front, from
far northwestern Minnesota into the eastern South Dakota. NAM
forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear mostly in the 35 to 45 knot range. This is due to directional
shear in the boundary-layer and westerly flow in the mid-levels.
This could support a potential for supercells, if modes end up as
discrete. Supercells would be capable of hail and isolated severe
gusts. There is some uncertainty as to the location of the maximum
threat, which will depend on the timing of the front and
distribution of low-level moisture and instability. An upgrade in
category could be necessary if the models continue to show a more
favorable scenario.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2025

$$