777
ACUS03 KWNS 111920
SWODY3
SPC AC 111919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Monday.

...Southwest...
A mid/upper low will move south along the OR to the northern CA
coast through the period. A broadening swath of 50+ kt 500-mb
southwesterlies to westerlies will overspread much of southern CA to
the eastern Great Basin and CO Plateau. Primary area of concern for
a potential level 1-MRGL risk in later outlooks is from the Four
Corners vicinity southward across eastern AZ to southern NM, where
the strengthening deep-layer flow regime would support lower-end
mid-level updraft rotation. But mid-level lapse rates appear likely
to remain weak, limiting MLCAPE. Depending on mesoscale details
related to the degree of diabatic surface heating, in the wake of
lingering overnight/morning clouds/rain, a corridor or two of
low-end severe highlights may become warranted.

...CA...
Guidance consensus indicate an intense mid-level jetlet should
impinge on the southern CA coast Monday night, to the south of the
aforementioned northern CA low. This would foster a conditionally
favorable deep-layer wind profile for updraft rotation. However,
mid-level temperatures should remain warm enough to maintain shallow
convection where hodographs would be enlarged within the low-level
warm conveyor. Isolated, general thunderstorms should be confined
farther north where mid-level lapse rates are much steeper, and
meager buoyancy can still be maintained.

..Grams.. 10/11/2025

$$