279
ACUS03 KWNS 060624
SWODY3
SPC AC 060623

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday
night.

...TX...

A compact upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico will
develop east over TX on Friday/Friday night. Ahead of this feature,
shortwave upper ridging will persist across the south-central U.S.
through at least Friday evening. Weak south/southeasterly low-level
flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX, supporting
modest destabilization. Most guidance depicts capping across the
region, with warm temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer noted in
forecast soundings. However, models do differ with regards to the
strength of the cap. Weak flow is also expected below 500 mb, though
veering wind profiles will result in stronger effective shear.
Thunderstorm development is uncertain, but if storms can development
and be maintained, some hail risk is possible given steep midlevel
lapse rates. Given uncertainty regarding depth and timing of
moisture return and persistent capping, will hold off from adding a
Level 1 (Marginal) risk at this time, especially as it is unclear
where the best potential would develop across TX.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026

$$