557
ACUS03 KWNS 220657
SWODY3
SPC AC 220656

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western
Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

...Southern/Central Plains...

The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue
across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest
shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into
the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee
troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline
will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX.
Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will
slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a
broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected
across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be
ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where
better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any
outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large
hail and strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 04/22/2025

$$