855
ACUS03 KWNS 041904
SWODY3
SPC AC 041903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and
Pennsylvania into West Virginia.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper
Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly
deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper
OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm
sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across
the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile,
cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around
6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across
western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg).
Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with
southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along
the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid
other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be
possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with
this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late
afternoon/early evening.

..Leitman.. 10/04/2024

$$