184
ACUS03 KWNS 261930
SWODY3
SPC AC 261929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible
Thursday across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast/Carolinas...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough and surface cold front will move
steadily east across the southeast states/mid-Atlantic region on
Thursday, preceded by a northward transport of an increasingly moist
boundary-layer air mass. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker than
on Wednesday/D2, and generally weak buoyancy is anticipated across
much of the Marginal Risk area. The exception will be closer to the
FL Panhandle/adjacent Gulf Coast, were pockets of moderate MLCAPE
may be present.

A couple clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z Thursday
accompanied by some severe risk, with additional development or
re-intensification during the late morning/afternoon in advance of
the cold front. Frontal timing differences across the risk area
remain, with the 12z GFS somewhat slower than the latest ECMWF,
UKMET and Canadian guidance. These differences will modulate the
degree of destabilization that can occur prior to frontal passage,
with a slower solution increasing the severe threat into the
afternoon hours (currently more likely across southern portions of
the risk area).

Although low-level flow will tend to weaken somewhat with time as
the primary surface cyclone moves offshore over the mid-Atlantic
coast, deep-layer shear will remain more than supportive of
organized storms including supercells and linear structures as the
day progresses. Should greater instability develop than currently
anticipated, a corridor of higher severe probabilities within the
Marginal Risk area would be warranted. For this outlook issuance,
however, a fairly broad area of low severe probabilities for the
possibility of all severe hazards will be maintained.

..Bunting.. 11/26/2024

$$