Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
887 ACUS03 KWNS 071930 SWODY3 SPC AC 071930 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds and large hail are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will continue across the Great Lakes region on Monday, with a cold front extending broadly from eastern Ontario southwestward across the Ohio Valley and south into the southern Plains. A secondary stationary front will be located near central Virginia into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the Southern Plains with development expected along the aforementioned boundaries in the north and east by the afternoon. ...Southeastern US to the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the cold front in the northeast and Ohio Valley and along the stationary front in VA and the Carolinas Tuesday afternoon. Daytime heating and moistening should yield a broad region of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg ahead of the main cold front across the east. The primary risk with this activity will be damaging wind. A few instances of large hail will be possible, mainly along and near the cold front where stronger deep layer shear will be available for organization. A southward propagating MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the D3 period across the lower Mississippi Valley. Some reintensification along residual outflow will be possible through the late morning/afternoon. ...Southern High Plains to TX... Diurnal storm development in New Mexico will probably remain tied to the higher terrain with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy will exist for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night. ..Thornton.. 06/07/2025 $$