823
ACUS03 KWNS 250730
SWODY3
SPC AC 250729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge centered over the Mid-South will push
northwestward on Sunday. A broad area of moderate mid-level winds
will persist across the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest.
Southerly surface to 850 mb flow will draw seasonably rich moisture
northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong to
extreme buoyancy is expected to develop in these areas (3000-4000+
J/kg MLCAPE forecast). As the upper ridge continues to intensify,
shear will be on the increase as well. The development of severe
storms appears most likely near a surface trough/low in the Dakotas
with additional potential along a warm front into the Upper Midwest.


...Northern Plains into Upper Midwest...
A rather uncertain forecast exists for this Sunday. The overall
synoptic pattern would suggest the potential for MCS development
somewhere within these areas. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show convective
development, but their timing and location differ. This is in part
due to the uncertainties with regard to what occurs Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday morning. How intense this activity
becomes late Saturday and where it travels into early Sunday will
play a large role in the most favorable zone for afternoon storm
initiation. The ECMWF/GFS tend to suggest storms will develop in the
Upper Midwest on the warm front/outflow from Saturday night. The NAM
is farther west and much later with development mid/late evening
Sunday. For now, a broad marginal captures the envelope of possible
outcomes. The environment will be conditionally favorable for strong
MCS development capable of swaths of severe wind gusts. Higher
severe probabilities will probably be needed as uncertainty
decreases with additional/updated guidance.

..Wendt.. 07/25/2025

$$