939
ACUS03 KWNS 220607
SWODY3
SPC AC 220606

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions
of eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...North Dakota/Minnesota...

An upper shortwave trough will develop southeast from the Canadian
Prairies toward the Great Lakes on Friday. This will result in some
enhancement of northwesterly flow aloft across the region. At the
surface, low pressure will move from northern Manitoba into Quebec
and a trailing cold front will drop southeast across ND  and
northern MN. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will
transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints across parts of the eastern
Dakotas and MN. A plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates will
overspread the region, supporting 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically
veering wind profiles, with 30-50 kt northwesterly flow between
700-500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 40
kt. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon/early evening near the surface front. Wind profiles
suggest supercells will be possible. Forecast soundings indicate
some areas may maintain weak to moderate capping, which may preclude
surface-based convection. However, elevated storms will pose a risk
for isolated large hail. If thunderstorms are surface-based, a risk
for strong gusts and tornado would also be possible.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

$$