390
ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe storms appears low for Friday.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West
while upper-ridging remains in place east of the Rockies on Friday.
The eastward advancement of the upper trough will encourage the
deepening of a surface low across the northern Plains, with
low-level moisture return anticipated across the Gulf Coast states
to the Upper MS Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies given strong
forcing for ascent amid marginal buoyancy. Across the northern
Plains into the Upper MS Valley, near the international border,
isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low along a
warm front. Across both the Interior West and Upper MS Valley, a few
strong thunderstorms are possible.

...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
Strong vertical wind shear is expected to overspread the Great Basin
into the northern Rockies ahead of the upper trough, resulting in
enlarged, curved hodographs. MLCAPE should remain generally under
500 J/kg, constricted to thin profiles above a mixed boundary layer
extending up to 600 mb. As such, the threat for organized severe
appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this
time. However, given strong vertical wind shear and the mixed
boundary layer, organized storm structures may produce at least some
sub-severe wind gusts/hail.

...Northern Plains into the Upper-Mississippi Valley...
Ahead of the surface low and along the warm front, considerable
veering and strengthening of the winds with height will yield
enlarged, curved hodographs with some elongation. Furthermore, 8+
C/km mid-level lapse rates will contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE.
However, questions remain regarding the degree of forcing to support
thunderstorms, with the upper trough remaining well to the west.
Furthermore, low-level moisture should remain mediocre, with surface
dewpoints barely reaching 60 F. At the moment, the amount of forcing
and low-level moisture appears too low to warrant severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 10/01/2025

$$