786
ACUS03 KWNS 181919
SWODY3
SPC AC 181919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms with at least isolated severe potential will
be possible from the Mid Atlantic into Ohio and Missouri Valleys and
central Plains Sunday into Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist over the Northeast as
an upper low moves southeastward across Quebec. To the south, and
upper high will be centered over the Gulf Coast states, with an
enhanced belt of midlevel westerlies across the Midwest.

At the surface, a cold front will push southeastward across New
England and toward the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon, with the
western extension of this same boundary stalling into the Mid MO
Valley.

A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the main front, aiding
episodes of strong storms from southern New England/Mid Atlantic
Coast area, the OH Valley, and from SD into NE.

...Mid Atlantic/Northeast...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely in association with the cold
front beginning relatively early in the day. The air mass will be
very moist, and heating will result in up to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE prior
to the front moving offshore late in the day. Forecast soundings
indicate poor lapse rates aloft, but strong gusts may occur with
fast moving clusters of storms as far south as NJ.

...Central to northern Plains...
A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into western SD/NE/KS,
with strong heating. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture
into the Dakotas and NE, with locally strong instability developing
within a narrow uncapped zone. A few storms capable of large hail
and localized wind damage may occur from late afternoon into early
evening. Storm motions should remain relatively slow and severe
threat localized as shear will remain marginal this far south. A
small Slight Risk could be needed in later outlooks as precision
increases.

...OH Valley...
Early day storms near/north of the elongated front may linger across
parts of IL/IN/OH, with a diurnal uptick as heating occurs from near
St. Louis eastward across KY and into western VA. Poor lapse rates
aloft and modest westerlies aloft suggest only localized severe
potential within the broader thunderstorm area, with a few damaging
downbursts possible.

..Jewell.. 07/18/2025

$$