Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
488 ACUS03 KWNS 080754 SWODY3 SPC AC 080753 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A dampening shortwave trough will progress from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes. The trailing occluded/cold/quasi-stationary front arcing southwest, from the attendant surface low moving into southeast Canada, will serve as a focus for weak thunder activity. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit coverage, from the Lower OH Valley southwestward across the Lower MS to Sabine Valleys. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over far south FL by late afternoon into Sunday night as low-level moisture increases from the southeast. 10 percent thunder probabilities may reach coastal WA/OR by 12Z Monday as a northeast Pacific shortwave trough approaches. ...Coastal LA... 00Z ECMWF ensemble depicts increasing spread in the evolution of TC Rafael by early Sunday as the cyclone weakens. A small percentage support more of a northerly movement, similar to deterministic NCEP/CMC guidance. But the vast majority of the ECMWF ensemble members, along with the UKMET, support the favored NHC forecast. For now, TC-tornado potential appears likely to remain negligible. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 $$