468
ACUS03 KWNS 031850
SWODY3
SPC AC 031849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.

...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.

Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.

...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2025

$$