240
ACUS03 KWNS 070820
SWODY3
SPC AC 070819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday midday into
early evening along the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from north
Florida to far southeast Virginia.

...North FL to southeast VA...
Major amplification of the eastern CONUS upper trough that commences
on D2/Saturday will persist through Sunday. Attendant surface
cyclone should track from the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley
towards coastal southern New England through Sunday night. Extending
south from this low, a cold front will push east across the
Southeast and largely offshore by late evening, north of the FL
Peninsula. While the bulk of deep-layer flow amplification will be
behind the front, strong deep-layer shear will be present
along/ahead of it with at least weak surface-based buoyancy.

Guidance continues to depict run-to-run inconsistency as some models
trend upward with the degree of convective coverage, while others
indicate a fairly dry frontal passage in this region amid low
RH/weak lapse rates in the mid-levels. The 00Z GEFS and parent GFS
are seemingly the most insistent on greater than isolated convective
coverage from GA northward, supportive of a level 2-SLGT risk
delineation. But with other guidance trending in the opposite
direction, will defer to later outlooks for a potential upgrade.

..Grams.. 11/07/2025

$$