104
ACUS03 KWNS 251930
SWODY3
SPC AC 251929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will
further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a
weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic
flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending
northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong
low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves
offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high
pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US.

With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of
the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be
limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse
rates and  buoyancy should limit the severe threat.

Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern
Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind
the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold
thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase
precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to
deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands.

..Lyons.. 11/25/2025

$$