557
ACUS03 KWNS 231921
SWODY3
SPC AC 231920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night
from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low initially over parts of SK/MB is forecast to
move southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes on Monday, as a
leading shortwave trough ejects eastward across parts of the Midwest
and Ohio Valley. A surface low is generally forecast to deepen and
move northeastward from the mid MS Valley region towards the lower
Great Lakes, though guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding
the timing and strength of this low. A trailing cold front will move
across parts of the lower Great Lakes, OH/TN Valleys, and lower/mid
MS Valleys. Across the West, a weakening mid/upper-level low is
forecast to gradually move southeastward towards parts of the
Pacific Northwest coast.

...Sabine Valley into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South/TN Valley...
Low-level moisture return will continue on Monday along/ahead of the
front, with 60s F dewpoints spreading from east TX into parts of the
Mid-South, and lower/mid 50s F dewpoints potentially reaching into
parts of the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop (mainly
later in the forecast period) within the richer moisture along/ahead
of the front from the Sabine Valley into the Mid-South/TN Valley.
Deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable with time, and a
strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, but most current guidance
suggests that weak buoyancy/lapse rates will tend to limit storm
organization and intensity.

...Ohio Valley...
Guidance generally suggests that low-level moistening will be
insufficient to support deep convection with northward extent along
the front into the Ohio Valley, resulting in low thunderstorm
potential. The most aggressive guidance (with respect to the
strength of the surface low and frontal convergence) does depict
some potential for weak low-topped convection with localized gusty
winds spreading eastward with the front from late afternoon into the
evening.

..Dean.. 11/23/2024

$$