323
ACUS03 KWNS 181907
SWODY3
SPC AC 181906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level
shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on
Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great
Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout
midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or
slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening
mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold
front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into
parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may
tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm
front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday
morning.

A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and
stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit
organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm
development will be possible near the weakening front from the
Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm
development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning
across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime.
It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for
any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime.
High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts
will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies,
in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough.

..Dean.. 09/18/2024

$$