678
ACUS03 KWNS 051908
SWODY3
SPC AC 051907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Friday through Friday night.

...Discussion...
General, broad mid/upper ridging centered over the subtropical
latitudes is likely to be maintained, and a prominent influence
across the southern into central tier of the U.S. through this
period, downstream of persistent ridging in the northern
mid-latitudes, and troughing in the southern mid- to subtropic
latitudes, of the eastern Pacific.  To the east of the Pacific
ridging, broad mean troughing, with more progressive embedded
smaller scale perturbations, will linger across British Columbia and
the Pacific Northwest, while developing eastward across the Canadian
Prairies, northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains.  This is likely to
support deepening surface troughing, and perhaps cyclogenesis, to
the lee of the Rockies.  However, there remains substantive spread
concerning this, as models continue to struggle with their varying
ability to account for the seasonably cold air now entrenched to the
east of the Rockies.

Some erosion, from south to north, of the shallow leading edge of
this air mass is possible, beneath a continuing southerly to
westerly return flow across parts of the southern Great Plains into
southern Mid Atlantic.  However, it appears that associated moisture
emanating from a modifying western Gulf boundary layer will not
become supportive of more than weak destabilization, or an
appreciable risk for thunderstorms, due to negligible forcing for
ascent and warm, capping layers aloft.

Models do indicate that forcing for ascent and cooling mid-levels
may contribute to pockets of weak destabilization across parts of
the Northwest into northern Great Plains.  However, based on latest
forecast soundings, it remains unclear whether associated
boundary-layer based and/or elevated convective development will
become capable of producing more than very transient/isolated
lightning.

..Kerr.. 02/05/2025

$$