162
ACUS03 KWNS 011850
SWODY3
SPC AC 011849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...East TX into the lower MS Valley...
A weak surface low is forecast to move across parts of the lower MS
Valley into parts of the TN/lower OH Valleys on Tuesday, as a
trailing cold front moves through parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex
and Mid-South. Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the
50s to around 60 F) will spread from east TX into northern LA and
southwest MS ahead of the front, though buoyancy is expected to
remain weak, with MLCAPE generally remaining below 500 J/kg.
Early-day convection that develops within a low-level warm advection
regime may gradually deepen through the day, with isolated weak
thunderstorms becoming possible. Additional isolated afternoon storm
development cannot be ruled out near the front across east TX,
though forcing is expected to remain weak in this area. The weak
buoyancy and generally limited ascent across the warm sector are
currently expected to limit severe potential.

..Dean.. 02/01/2026

$$