869
ACUS03 KWNS 300708
SWODY3
SPC AC 300707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday
through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a branch of westerlies across the mid-latitude
Pacific into North America may trend more amplified during this
period.  It appears that this will include a mid-level trough
digging inland in some fashion across California on the leading edge
of this regime, but there is notable spread still evident in the
output concerning this feature.

Downstream, broad mid-level ridging is likely to encompass the
remainder of the U.S., to the north of a subtropical regime
including a building ridge along an axis from the northern Mexican
Plateau through the central Great Plains, and weak downstream
troughing digging a bit further southwestward through the Gulf
Basin.  Beneath this regime, a slowly weakening surface ridge,
becoming centered off the north Atlantic coast, may encompass a
broad area from the Gulf coast and southern Great Plains through the
northwestern Atlantic.

Models suggest that moist easterly low-level flow, to the north of
an offshore surface front, may become unstable enough to support a
risk for scattered thunderstorm activity across the Florida
Peninsula, northern Gulf Basin and perhaps adjacent northern Gulf
coast.  Additional scattered thunderstorm development is possible
Thursday into Thursday night, along a frontal zone downstream of the
inland digging trough, across parts of the Great Basin, and within a
lingering low-level warm advection regime across the northern Great
Plains Red River vicinity through northern Minnesota.  However,
guidance continues to suggest negligible risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/30/2025

$$