887
ACUS03 KWNS 071930
SWODY3
SPC AC 071930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds and
large hail are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the
Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will continue across the Great Lakes
region on Monday, with a cold front extending broadly from eastern
Ontario southwestward across the Ohio Valley and south into the
southern Plains. A secondary stationary front will be located near
central Virginia into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing across the Southern Plains with development expected along
the aforementioned boundaries in the north and east by the
afternoon.

...Southeastern US to the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the cold front in
the northeast and Ohio Valley and along the stationary front in VA
and the Carolinas Tuesday afternoon. Daytime heating and moistening
should yield a broad region of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg ahead of
the main cold front across the east. The primary risk with this
activity will be damaging wind. A few instances of large hail will
be possible, mainly along and near the cold front where stronger
deep layer shear will be available for organization. A southward
propagating MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the D3 period
across the lower Mississippi Valley. Some reintensification along
residual outflow will be possible through the late
morning/afternoon.

...Southern High Plains to TX...
Diurnal storm development in New Mexico will probably remain tied to
the higher terrain with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid
marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream
of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection
north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated
buoyancy will exist for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday
night.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$