264
ACUS03 KWNS 020825
SWODY3
SPC AC 020824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western
Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern
Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.

...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and
central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass,
pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from
north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front
in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east
of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from
northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the
1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In
addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to
8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat
will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe
threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet
strengthens.

...Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid
Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At
the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into
north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance
northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the
warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the
development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to
40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio
Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the
low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe
threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

$$