388
ACUS03 KWNS 260728
SWODY3
SPC AC 260726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday
morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the
Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by
afternoon.  At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest
ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by
afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont.
Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central
and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas.


...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians...

Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to
be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data
indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central
Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to
uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those
areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air
mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a
kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of
deep-layer shear.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee
trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized
storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing
structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some
tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva
near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air
mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.


...Northern and Central High Plains...

Between a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains and a
stalled surface front along the KS-OK border, a zone of moist and
moderately unstable upslope flow is forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon and evening along favored
terrain with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some level of
organization. Severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with
the strongest storms.

..Mead.. 07/26/2026

$$